<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></title><description><![CDATA[Opportunities To Learn, Grow & Prosper]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!j8_i!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28c973a8-b15b-4019-9ea2-3fd75d62871f_1010x1010.png</url><title>Kirk&apos;s Opportunities</title><link>https://kirksopportunities.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:25:09 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://kirksopportunities.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[kirkopportunities@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[kirkopportunities@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[kirkopportunities@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[kirkopportunities@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Managing Risk Versus Reward]]></title><description><![CDATA[While the bullish price action continues to experience little to no resistance, the next phase is about managing upside target captures and potential sell-the-news risks.]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/managing-risk-versus-reward</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/managing-risk-versus-reward</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2026 22:38:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kVR_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3555c8b0-3115-4261-b5be-cf21c2c0bf39_1440x810.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Kirk's Notes]]></title><description><![CDATA[A few of my notes from the last week of May]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/kirks-notes-6cd</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/kirks-notes-6cd</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2026 00:49:59 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qdst!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F160314cb-df38-4678-b76d-6b427eba2076_2242x1336.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[What's Ahead For The Markets This Summer?]]></title><description><![CDATA[After eight straight weekly gains, the price action still supports higher highs, but the next phase may bring more rotation, more chop, and a bigger test of discipline.]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/whats-ahead-for-the-markets-this</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/whats-ahead-for-the-markets-this</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2026 20:29:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png" width="1206" height="806" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:806,&quot;width&quot;:1206,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:154020,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NQca!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05e28bc-53c5-4be0-9ed8-d957b7e7ec6e_1206x806.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">SpaceX Starship In Flight (May 22, 2026) &#169; Eric Gay/AP</figcaption></figure></div><h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2><p>After eight straight weekly gains, the S&amp;P 500 still has price-action support for higher highs, but the next phase depends on whether buyers can sustain the breakout, absorb rotation, and keep shallow pullbacks well-contained.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>Eight-Week Streak Deserves Respect</strong></h2><p>I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;ve heard that markets climb the wall of worry. </p><p>For this market, it has been a long, steady, and historic climb lasting 8 straight weeks and gaining +17.3%. Persistent strength like this has been seen only twice this century and only nine times in total since 1950:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png" width="1286" height="668" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:668,&quot;width&quot;:1286,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:182436,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ccyn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a5bfe3e-0c12-4edc-a32e-4eab3b57d81a_1286x668.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source:  Wayne Whaley</figcaption></figure></div><p>As this study shows, forward performance following these winning streaks was strong:</p><ul><li><p>Positive 8 out of 9 times, or 88.9%, one month later</p></li><li><p>While the average 1-year gain was slightly less, 5 of the 9 times it was larger</p></li><li><p>Maximum drawdowns were modest with one exception - the 1987 crash (-20.7%)</p></li></ul><p><em>The main takeaway is that what we have seen since the March low remains bullish until price action proves otherwise.</em></p><p>By another measure, this also ranks as the <em>20th strongest rally since 1950</em>:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png 848w, 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data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:895,&quot;width&quot;:1301,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:772736,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dzTA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc69a26c4-8682-47d5-9ad0-870809180b62_1301x895.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source:  Charlie Bilello, Creative Planning</figcaption></figure></div><p>I share these studies for context, not certainty. The sample sizes are small, and we should always be careful about overfitting market history. </p><p>But the message is still useful: rare strength often leads to more strength, as long as price action continues to confirm the setup.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>New Bullish Play</strong></h2><p>After capturing its two targets in the S&amp;P 7,400 target zone during the seventh week of this winning streak, the post-target consolidation lasted only three days ending last Tuesday. </p><p>Like so many dips during this rally, the three-day pullback was limited to -2.4% before buyers stepped in.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png" width="1408" height="382" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:382,&quot;width&quot;:1408,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:128954,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_OZh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a8ca952-47e6-4d54-9d99-595bef40a0ab_1408x382.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Duality Research</figcaption></figure></div><p>As I shared in the <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notes</a>, the short-term price action was easy to read and evaluate. </p><p>A new short-term bullish reversal play formed, triggered, and then followed through last week. This new play successfully filled the May 15th gap before pulling back. More importantly, it also laid the foundation for a potential move toward<strong> </strong><em><strong>S&amp;P 7,533</strong></em> and <em><strong>7,575</strong></em>, or roughly +0.8% to +1.4% higher.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:66555,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ybst!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108992cc-7516-4ed9-b8c3-a814359b3b97_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This shows the value of seeing periods of consolidation and minor dips along the way. </p><p>As long as the -2% to -3% dips continue to get bought, the path of least resistance is higher as strength continues to beget more strength. </p><p><em>This week, the key short-term test is straightforward: can the S&amp;P 500 sustain a breakout above the May high at 7,517, or does it break below last week&#8217;s low at 7,333?</em> </p><p>On a measured-move basis, a confirmed breakout would target 7,701, while a confirmed breakdown would target 7,149.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r52e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F876616a1-7b87-4f3b-b66f-063fd6b0d01b_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>On a short-term basis, more sideways consolidation is always possible after a move like this. If there is a sustained break below last week&#8217;s low, I will also be watching to see if the rising 21-EMA provides trailing support above the first Fibonacci retracement:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png" width="1456" height="787" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:787,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:251104,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dVwW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f510833-cbb9-41b6-ba25-03754725ac61_2010x1087.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As long-time subscribers know, I have more confidence that a longer-term target will be captured sooner than later when short term bullish price action plays have also laid the foundation to, or just above, the same level.</p><p>Right now, both the short-term and longer-term price-action foundations are pointing in the same direction: higher. The highest potential target is now 7,701, roughly +3% above current levels. If reached, that would also fulfill the final longer-term range-breakout target at 7,688 from the March pullback:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:38997,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/199006857?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4iLF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5813bd4d-7700-457b-ba6f-e4c2632cef68_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div>
      <p>
          <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/p/whats-ahead-for-the-markets-this">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Kirk's Notes]]></title><description><![CDATA[It's been an active week with plenty to think about during this holiday weekend]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/kirks-notes-35f</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/kirks-notes-35f</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2026 10:39:50 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png" width="1200" height="800" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:800,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1539795,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/198921532?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O2Ql!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4f91bca-f36f-4ece-bffe-404181f5ec7b_1200x800.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>As we head into Memorial Day weekend, I want to pause and recognize the true meaning of this holiday.</strong></p><p>While many of us will enjoy time with family, friends, and a well-earned break, Memorial Day is ultimately about honoring the brave men and women who gave their lives in service to our country. Their sacrifice made possible the freedoms and opportunities we too often take for granted. </p><p><strong>Wishing you and your family a meaningful Memorial Day weekend.</strong></p><p><strong>C.E. Kirk</strong></p><div><hr></div><p>In case you missed them, these were some of notes I shared in the past week:</p><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263650785,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263650785,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-23T01:17:00.123Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-23T01:54:48.148Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\n\&quot;You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great and that&#8217;s what being a space-faring civilization is all about. It&#8217;s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can&#8217;t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.&#8221; - Elon Musk, from SpaceX prospectus\n\nExpect plenty of space and quantum chatter (and &#8220;told you so&#8217;s) at the cookouts throughout this Memorial holiday weekend (via Lin):&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;\&quot;You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great and that&#8217;s what being a space-faring civilization is all about. It&#8217;s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can&#8217;t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.&#8221; - Elon Musk, from SpaceX prospectus&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Expect plenty of &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;space &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;and &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;quantum &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;chatter (and &#8220;told you so&#8217;s) at the cookouts throughout this Memorial holiday weekend (&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;via Lin&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;):&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:0,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;6581d553-4d4f-4f15-af92-81f88d2971c7&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/40d35f6a-56fc-4372-ad42-2adeb0e2574a_1121x1200.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1121,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1200,&quot;explicit&quot;:false},{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;b4de369a-604f-42de-8080-2f45f204cc60&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3d517ea0-6e25-45ed-b164-40336ae9d54b_3318x1928.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:3318,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1928,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263641226,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263641226,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-23T01:00:00.175Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Is this a broad or narrow/concentrated market? Does it matter? Not yet!\n\nPrice action performance sorted by the past month (via Seeking Alpha):&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Is this a &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;broad &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;or &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;narrow/concentrated&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; market? Does it matter? &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Not yet!&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Price action performance sorted by the past month (via Seeking Alpha):&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:1,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;b9194d54-5ed4-49fb-a8f8-454e4ab6e60c&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d71b83d8-44ae-48c6-9038-8a7c3aeab7a6_1026x1559.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1026,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1559,&quot;explicit&quot;:false},{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;a34ca345-7450-4944-8d3f-092e718405fd&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85d690ed-f525-4ec4-9f06-9834e7e29a0a_1024x1503.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1024,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1503,&quot;explicit&quot;:false},{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;e8951e0e-5306-4ff8-97b4-db03ae7517f2&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4927aee4-0b05-4484-b98e-6d7f428e0726_1019x980.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1019,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:980,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263545549,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263545549,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T21:33:00.113Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;This fireside chat with Citadel&#8217;s Ken Griffin is a terrific way to transition into the long holiday weekend. Watch the whole thing or start around the 20 minute mark where he shares his latest evolutionary thoughts about using AI:\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Csjy_A3Kj9s\n\nKen Griffin&#8217;s main message is that leadership, business success, and personal growth all come down to adaptability, competition, resilience, lifelong learning, and surrounding yourself with exceptional people.\n\nVideo Summary\n\nThis conversation focused on leadership in uncertain markets, the importance of competition, the disruptive power of AI, the need to fix education, and the opportunity ahead for the next generation of business leaders.\n\nGriffin repeatedly emphasized that uncertainty is always present, even when conditions appear calm. The best leaders move decisively, stay flexible, admit mistakes quickly, and avoid getting trapped by sunk costs.\n\nKey Points\n\nLeadership Under Uncertainty\n\n&#8226; Every business is always making decisions under uncertainty.\n\n&#8226; The difference is whether the uncertainty is obvious or hidden.\n\n&#8226; Leaders must commit to a direction but remain willing to pivot quickly as new information arrives.\n\n&#8226; Large organizations often fail because they lose the ability to move decisively.\n\n&#8226; Great businesses avoid sunk cost fallacy. They admit when something is wrong, learn from it, and move on.\n\nResilience And Failure\n\n&#8226; Success stories are usually told by winners, which hides how many setbacks occurred along the way.\n\n&#8226; Griffin stressed that even great companies have dark chapters.\n\n&#8226; The key trait of strong organizations is resilience: facing difficult moments honestly, keeping them in perspective, and continuing forward.\n\n&#8226; Citadel&#8217;s 2008 experience was described as a near-death moment, not merely a challenge.\n\n&#8226; The lesson from 2008 was simple but critical: do not operate like a bank unless you actually have the safety net of a bank.\n\nCompetition Versus Crony Capitalism\n\n&#8226; Griffin strongly defended competition as the force that improves companies, products, services, and living standards.\n\n&#8226; He criticized crony capitalism because it rewards connections instead of merit.\n\n&#8226; In his view, American business works best when success is earned through innovation, execution, and competition.\n\n&#8226; He argued that many of America&#8217;s greatest companies were built by entrepreneurs, not protected insiders.\n\nWhen Business Leaders Should Speak Publicly\n\n&#8226; Griffin believes executives should speak publicly when they have credible expertise.\n\n&#8226; He thinks business leaders can add value on issues such as immigration, tariffs, antitrust, regulation, and economic policy.\n\n&#8226; He believes they should generally avoid social issues where they do not have a uniquely credible perspective and risk alienating large portions of the public.\n\nAI And The Future Of Work\n\n&#8226; Griffin said AI has made a major leap in productivity over the past several months.\n\n&#8226; At Citadel, he said AI agents are now doing some high-level finance research tasks in hours or days that previously took highly trained people weeks or months.\n\n&#8226; He sees real job disruption ahead, including in highly skilled white-collar work.\n\n&#8226; At the same time, he believes AI will also create new companies, new services, new consumer experiences, and new entrepreneurial opportunities.\n\n&#8226; His biggest career advice in an AI world: learn how to learn and remain a lifelong learner.\n\nEducation As A National Priority\n\n&#8226; Griffin argued that America&#8217;s institutional trust has deteriorated partly because people are not being taught enough history, civics, or basic skills.\n\n&#8226; He sees K through 12 education as a critical national issue.\n\n&#8226; He warned that weak education will leave the U.S. workforce less prepared for an AI-powered world.\n\n&#8226; He supports more competition in education, including charter schools and alternative school models.\n\nOpportunity Ahead\n\n&#8226; Griffin closed on an optimistic note.\n\n&#8226; He believes this is one of the best times in history to start a company, build something meaningful, or change the world.\n\n&#8226; Access to capital, cloud computing, AI, and global distribution has dramatically lowered barriers for entrepreneurs.\n\n&#8226; He encouraged future leaders to surround themselves with talented people who think differently.\n\n&#8226; He also emphasized giving back, mentoring others, and pursuing work that combines talent with passion.\n\nBest Lines\n\n&#8226; Every business is making decisions under uncertainty. The only question is how obvious that uncertainty is.\n\n&#8226; Businesses that commit to a direction while keeping an open mind have a chance to succeed.\n\n&#8226; Great businesses do not suffer from sunk cost fallacy.\n\n&#8226; Competition creates continuous improvement.\n\n&#8226; Crony capitalism replaces merit and earned success with political favoritism.\n\n&#8226; Success in your career will depend on whether you remain a lifelong learner.\n\n&#8226; AI will make learning how to learn even more important.\n\n&#8226; This is the best of times for entrepreneurs.\n\n&#8226; Do not try to clone yourself. Surround yourself with people who are bright and different from you.\n\n&#8226; You will only be great if you are both talented and passionate.\n\nConclusion\n\nThe strongest takeaway is that the next decade will reward leaders and investors who can adapt quickly, learn continuously, compete honestly, and avoid getting trapped by old assumptions. Griffin&#8217;s message is optimistic but demanding: the opportunity set is enormous, but only for people and organizations willing to move fast, think clearly, admit mistakes, and keep improving.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This fireside chat with &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Citadel&#8217;s Ken Griffin&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; is a terrific way to transition into the long holiday weekend. Watch the whole thing or start around the 20 minute mark where he shares his latest evolutionary thoughts about using AI:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Csjy_A3Kj9s&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Csjy_A3Kj9s&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Ken Griffin&#8217;s main message is that leadership, business success, and personal growth all come down to adaptability, competition, resilience, lifelong learning, and surrounding yourself with exceptional people.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Video Summary&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This conversation focused on leadership in uncertain markets, the importance of competition, the disruptive power of AI, the need to fix education, and the opportunity ahead for the next generation of business leaders.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Griffin repeatedly emphasized that uncertainty is always present, even when conditions appear calm. The best leaders move decisively, stay flexible, admit mistakes quickly, and avoid getting trapped by sunk costs.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Key Points&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Leadership Under Uncertainty&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Every business is always making decisions under uncertainty.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The difference is whether the uncertainty is obvious or hidden.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Leaders must commit to a direction but remain willing to pivot quickly as new information arrives.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Large organizations often fail because they lose the ability to move decisively.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Great businesses avoid sunk cost fallacy. They admit when something is wrong, learn from it, and move on.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Resilience And Failure&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Success stories are usually told by winners, which hides how many setbacks occurred along the way.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Griffin stressed that even great companies have dark chapters.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The key trait of strong organizations is resilience: facing difficult moments honestly, keeping them in perspective, and continuing forward.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Citadel&#8217;s 2008 experience was described as a near-death moment, not merely a challenge.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The lesson from 2008 was simple but critical: do not operate like a bank unless you actually have the safety net of a bank.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Competition Versus Crony Capitalism&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Griffin strongly defended competition as the force that improves companies, products, services, and living standards.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He criticized crony capitalism because it rewards connections instead of merit.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; In his view, American business works best when success is earned through innovation, execution, and competition.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He argued that many of America&#8217;s greatest companies were built by entrepreneurs, not protected insiders.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;When Business Leaders Should Speak Publicly&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Griffin believes executives should speak publicly when they have credible expertise.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He thinks business leaders can add value on issues such as immigration, tariffs, antitrust, regulation, and economic policy.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He believes they should generally avoid social issues where they do not have a uniquely credible perspective and risk alienating large portions of the public.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;AI And The Future Of Work&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Griffin said AI has made a major leap in productivity over the past several months.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; At Citadel, he said AI agents are now doing some high-level finance research tasks in hours or days that previously took highly trained people weeks or months.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He sees real job disruption ahead, including in highly skilled white-collar work.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; At the same time, he believes AI will also create new companies, new services, new consumer experiences, and new entrepreneurial opportunities.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; His biggest career advice in an AI world: learn how to learn and remain a lifelong learner.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Education As A National Priority&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Griffin argued that America&#8217;s institutional trust has deteriorated partly because people are not being taught enough history, civics, or basic skills.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He sees K through 12 education as a critical national issue.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He warned that weak education will leave the U.S. workforce less prepared for an AI-powered world.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He supports more competition in education, including charter schools and alternative school models.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Opportunity Ahead&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Griffin closed on an optimistic note.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He believes this is one of the best times in history to start a company, build something meaningful, or change the world.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Access to capital, cloud computing, AI, and global distribution has dramatically lowered barriers for entrepreneurs.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He encouraged future leaders to surround themselves with talented people who think differently.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; He also emphasized giving back, mentoring others, and pursuing work that combines talent with passion.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best Lines&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Every business is making decisions under uncertainty. The only question is how obvious that uncertainty is.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Businesses that commit to a direction while keeping an open mind have a chance to succeed.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Great businesses do not suffer from sunk cost fallacy.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Competition creates continuous improvement.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Crony capitalism replaces merit and earned success with political favoritism.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Success in your career will depend on whether you remain a lifelong learner.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI will make learning how to learn even more important.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; This is the best of times for entrepreneurs.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Do not try to clone yourself. Surround yourself with people who are bright and different from you.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; You will only be great if you are both talented and passionate.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Conclusion&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The strongest takeaway is that the next decade will reward leaders and investors who can adapt quickly, learn continuously, compete honestly, and avoid getting trapped by old assumptions. Griffin&#8217;s message is optimistic but demanding: the opportunity set is enormous, but only for people and organizations willing to move fast, think clearly, admit mistakes, and keep improving.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:0,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;53eff015-8927-484e-b1dd-fb937ae9c271&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;linkMetadata&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Csjy_A3Kj9s&quot;,&quot;host&quot;:&quot;youtube.com&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Stanford Leadership Forum 2026: Conversation with Ken Griffin&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Stanford Graduate School of Business&quot;,&quot;image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/l_youtube_play_qyqt8q,w_120/Csjy_A3Kj9s&quot;,&quot;original_image&quot;:&quot;https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Csjy_A3Kj9s/hqdefault.jpg&quot;},&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263468392,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263468392,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T18:08:12.198Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T18:12:51.458Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\n\&quot;Markets seem to have gotten the memo that investing and optimism beats cowering and pessimism. The price action today proves my point yet again. Be in to win or you won't win.\&quot; - Keith Fitz-Gerald\n\nS&amp;P 500 fills last Friday&#8217;s gap, focus now shifts to overcoming the high toward its next two targets at 7533 and 7575:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;\&quot;Markets seem to have gotten the memo that investing and optimism beats cowering and pessimism. The price action today proves my point yet again. Be in to win or you won't win.\&quot; - Keith Fitz-Gerald&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500 &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;fills last Friday&#8217;s gap&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, focus now shifts to overcoming the high toward its next two targets at &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7533&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; and &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7575&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;8151e261-4997-40df-8962-eacd07754a41&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2aabc51b-bbf1-4912-89cc-ecb39f87bf19_1975x1119.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1975,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1119,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263444978,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263444978,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T17:22:55.065Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;If you limit the study to those 8-week winning streaks with a +10% or better gain, bullish odds three months out (August) and again at the 9 month (February) and 12 month (May) periods. Drawdowns mostly limited to the pullback versus correction zone between -5 and -10% although there were some significant corrections -17% (1989) and -19% (1998), too:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If you limit the study to those &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;8-week winning streaks with a +10% or better gain&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, bullish odds three months out (August) and again at the 9 month (February) and 12 month (May) periods. Drawdowns mostly limited to the pullback versus correction zone between -5 and -10% although there were some significant corrections -17% (1989) and -19% (1998), too:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;6c8f833e-b505-429f-96d0-cca56f6515f1&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8303c4b8-f4b6-4576-8a00-ee81b4c439b3_1480x712.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1480,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:712,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263436201,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263436201,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T17:06:01.508Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-23T02:41:42.373Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Short-term 100-day performance following 8 week winning streaks: \n\n\n\n\n\nBest performing analog is up +21%\n\n\n\nLowest performing drawdown analog -4%\n\n\n\nMost paths +2% to +11% (average at +5%):&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Short-term 100-day performance following &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;8 week winning streaks&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;: &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best performing analog is up &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;+21%&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Lowest performing drawdown analog &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;-4%&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Most paths +2% to +11% (average at &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;+5%&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;):&quot;}]}]}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;6540625d-34a5-4264-9375-6f07bcd3980b&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ec9e03a8-e8b8-49c5-8459-2fb20a534d36_1312x956.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1312,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:956,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263422740,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263422740,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T16:41:19.209Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Nasdaq 100 already testing upper trendline resistance on its way to 30K:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Nasdaq 100&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; already testing upper trendline resistance on its way to &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;30K&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;7323ec50-d9db-4304-ac47-1be42b8eaf65&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c2096d4f-0fc8-4abe-b489-11ca5aa73838_1959x1092.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1959,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1092,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:263421406,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:263421406,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-22T16:38:46.275Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;With 8 weeks of exceptionally strong gains, S&amp;P 8,000 appears to be in the crosshairs as prices continue their climb toward the prior resistance trendline:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;With 8 weeks of exceptionally strong gains, &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 8,000&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; appears to be in the crosshairs as prices continue their climb toward the &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;prior resistance trendline&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;1b2407ff-ae48-4528-a011-7770ca3e8d67&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3a71a1a6-efd8-4bb4-bcea-3c85f95664be_1974x1111.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1974,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1111,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:262887056,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:262887056,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-21T17:38:01.518Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-21T18:19:15.949Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Your job is not to become someone else&#8217;s version of successful. Your job is to discover your own gift, trust it, develop it, and give it to the world!\n\nThis is a terrific commencement speech from someone I truly loved as a child of the 70s - the Fonz!  Watch:  https://kirkopps.com/r/KRbz5J5726\n\nThese were a few of my favorite quotes from this speech:\n\n\n\n&#8220;I live by two words tenacity and gratitude.&nbsp;Tenacity will get you where you want to go,&nbsp;and gratitude will make you enjoy the&nbsp;journey, no matter how bumpy.&#8221;\n\n&#8220;You are not hired no matter&nbsp;what you do to fill time and space,&nbsp;you are hired to fill that time and&nbsp;space with your imagination. You&nbsp;listen to your tummy. Your tummy&nbsp;knows everything. Your mind only knows&nbsp;a few things. You listen to your tummy.&#8221;\n\n&#8220;It was said in Washington not too long ago. America. The&nbsp;problem with America, we have too much empathy.&nbsp;Well, you can live a life you can accomplish,&nbsp;you can accumulate a lot of stuff. You can fill your house and then fill your&nbsp;garage and fill your basement. But you cannot&nbsp;live a rich life if you don't have empathy.&#8221;\n\n&#8220;You are powerful and in you is&nbsp;a great gift. And your job is to figure out&nbsp; what your gift is, because this world needs&nbsp;every single one of you, and your job is&nbsp;to find that gift and give it to the world.&#8221; \n\n- Henry Winkler\n\nPlease make sure to send this to those graduating this year!&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Your job is not to become someone else&#8217;s version of successful. Your job is to discover your own gift, trust it, develop it, and give it to the world!&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is a terrific commencement speech from someone I truly loved as a child of the 70s - the Fonz!  &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Watch&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;:  &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/KRbz5J5726&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/KRbz5J5726&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;These were a few of my favorite quotes from this speech:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;I live by two words &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;tenacity &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;and &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;gratitude&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&nbsp;Tenacity will get you where you want to go,&nbsp;and gratitude will make you enjoy the&nbsp;journey, no matter how bumpy.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;You are not hired no matter&nbsp;what you do to fill time and space,&nbsp;you are hired to fill that time and&nbsp;space &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;with your imagination&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;. You&nbsp;listen to your tummy. Your tummy&nbsp;knows everything. Your mind only knows&nbsp;a few things. &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You listen to your tummy.&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;It was said in Washington not too long ago. America. The&nbsp;problem with America, we have too much empathy.&nbsp;Well, you can live a life you can accomplish,&nbsp;you can accumulate a lot of stuff. You can fill your house and then fill your&nbsp;garage and fill your basement. But &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;you cannot&nbsp;live a rich life if you don't have empathy&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;You are powerful and in you is&nbsp;a great gift. And your job is to figure out&nbsp; what your gift is, because this world needs&nbsp;every single one of you, and &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;your job is&nbsp;to find that gift and give it to the world&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&#8221; &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;- Henry Winkler&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Please make sure to send this to those graduating this year!&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:4,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;3dd94130-d7f0-46f5-bd99-c57e8f128957&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4aa599e4-7599-4d8d-82b6-7da45d479e51_350x232.gif&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:350,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:232,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:262527190,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:262527190,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-21T04:19:00.169Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;This meme is hilarious&#8230;&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;meme &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;is hilarious&#8230;&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:11,&quot;children_count&quot;:1,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;c885a650-2e4c-4ff6-89b8-dfd64f3bdb34&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fdcb7000-c893-49da-898d-818cb5459f29_1170x1377.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1170,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1377,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:262534093,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:262534093,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-21T03:35:00.124Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Mastery begins when you stop asking, &#8220;What else can I trade?&#8221;\n\nAnd start asking, &#8220;What do I actually trade well?&#8221;\n\nThat question changes everything.\n\nIt forces honesty. It exposes false confidence. It separates real edge from entertainment. It shows which setups deserve more attention and which ones only create noise.\n\nMost traders do not need a new system. \n\nThey need a more honest audit of the one they already have.\n\n\n\n\n\nWhat has actually made money?\n\n\n\nWhat has repeatedly failed?\n\n\n\nWhere do you think clearly?\n\n\n\nWhere do you get emotional?\n\n\n\nWhere is your real edge?\n\n\n\nStart there.\n\nDelete the rest.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Mastery begins when you stop asking, &#8220;What else can I trade?&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;And start asking, &#8220;What do I actually trade well?&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That question changes everything.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It forces honesty. It exposes false confidence. It separates real edge from entertainment. It shows which setups deserve more attention and which ones only create noise.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Most traders do not need a new system. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They need a more honest audit of the one they already have.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What has actually made money?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What has repeatedly failed?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Where do you think clearly?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Where do you get emotional?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Where is your real edge?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Start there.&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Delete the rest.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:1,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:19,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:261946434,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:261946434,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-20T04:19:00.105Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\n\&quot;Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don't see it yourself.\&quot; ~ Edmund Lee&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;\&quot;Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don't see it yourself.\&quot; ~ Edmund Lee&quot;}]}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:20,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:240990419,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:240990419,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-17T16:09:23.080Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-17T17:19:46.495Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;I used to share quotes like this often:\n\n\n\n&#8220;Your life simply reflects what you&#8217;ve prioritized. What you've achieved tells you what you were willing to suffer for. What you failed at tells you the opposite.&#8221; - Mark Manson\n\nThat kind of message once made a lot of sense to me.\n\nThen I had an accident that left me paralyzed from the chest down.\n\nThat changed how I see life, success, failure, effort, and luck.\n\nYes, we have a lot within our control. Our choices matter. Our habits matter. Our discipline matters. What we prioritize does shape much of our life.\n\nBut only to a point.\n\nLuck matters, too.\n\nBeing in the right place at the right time can change your life.\n\nSo can being in the wrong place at the wrong time.\n\nThere is an old saying: &#8220;You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.&#8221;\n\nThat line hits differently when you have lived long enough to see how quickly life can turn. Sometimes bad luck does not arrive because you deserved it. Sometimes it is not a lesson. Sometimes it is not part of some neat, explainable story or &#8220;God&#8217;s plan.&#8221;\n\nSometimes bad things just happen for no good reason. \n\nSometimes to the best among us who least deserve it. \n\nLife spares no one.\n\nI believe that more now than ever.\n\nI have been blessed far more than most, and I never want to lose sight of that. But in this chapter of my life, I have also experienced profound grief, loss, pain, and adjustment.\n\nThe peaks teach you gratitude.\n\nThe valleys teach you humility.\n\nAnd somewhere between the two, you begin to understand that every person is walking through a story we cannot fully see.\n\nEach of us has our own journey, filled with challenges, losses, opportunities, and unexpected turns.\n\nSo yes, absolutely take responsibility for what you can control. But also give yourself and others some grace for what no one saw coming.\n\nBecause life is not always a clean equation of effort and outcome.\n\nSometimes the best we can do is keep going, keep learning, stay open, and learn how to live with both the blessings and the scars. \n\nC.E. Kirk&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I used to share quotes like this often:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;Your life simply reflects what you&#8217;ve prioritized. What you've achieved tells you what you were willing to suffer for. What you failed at tells you the opposite.&#8221; - Mark Manson&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That kind of message once made a lot of sense to me.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Then I had an accident that left me &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;paralyzed from the chest down&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That changed how I see life, success, failure, effort, and luck.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Yes, we have a lot within our control. Our choices matter. Our habits matter. Our discipline matters. What we prioritize does shape much of our life.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;But only to a point.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Luck matters, too.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Being in the right place at the right time can change your life.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So can being in the wrong place at the wrong time.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;There is an old saying: &#8220;You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That line hits differently when you have lived long enough to see how quickly life can turn. Sometimes bad luck does not arrive because you deserved it. Sometimes it is not a lesson. Sometimes it is not part of some neat, explainable story or &#8220;God&#8217;s plan.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Sometimes bad things just happen for no good reason. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Sometimes to the best among us who least deserve it. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Life spares no one.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I believe that more now than ever.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I have been blessed far more than most, and I never want to lose sight of that. But in this chapter of my life, &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I have also experienced profound grief, loss, pain, and adjustment.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The peaks teach you &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;gratitude&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The valleys teach you &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;humility&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;And somewhere between the two, you begin to understand that every person is walking through a story we cannot fully see.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Each of us has our own journey, filled with challenges, losses, opportunities, and unexpected turns.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So yes, absolutely take responsibility for what you can control. &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;But also give yourself and others some grace for what no one saw coming.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Because life is not always a clean equation of effort and outcome.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Sometimes the best we can do is keep going, keep learning, stay open, and learn how to live with both the blessings and the scars. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;C.E. Kirk&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:48,&quot;children_count&quot;:3,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div><hr></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;">View all the rest, including this weekend&#8217;s latest <strong><a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notes</a></strong>, when time permits!</p><p></p><div><hr></div><blockquote><p>&#8220;When you lose curiosity, the market gains advantage. The best traders are skeptical optimists: they believe in opportunity but verify everything.&#8221;</p><p>- Jon Markman</p></blockquote><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><strong>This Substack is 100% reader-supported.</strong> To receive new posts and support my work,  please consider becoming a <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/subscribe">paid subscriber</a>. Thank you!</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Two Targets Captured. Next Target +3% Away]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week we focus on the potential for the third target capture vs potential for consolidation.]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/two-targets-captured-next-target</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/two-targets-captured-next-target</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 02:11:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png" width="1456" height="970" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:970,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:6709439,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/198049253?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NehH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83a41e47-0ae6-4327-8378-61bf46f7c755_2528x1684.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><blockquote><p>&#8220;You can't hit a target you cannot see, and you cannot see a target you do not have."<br> - <em>Zig Ziglar</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h2>The Price Action</h2><p>For the S&amp;P 500 (and Nasdaq Comp.), the rally continued for its 7th straight week.  </p><p>For the others, not so much:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png" width="464" height="182.09302325581396" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:270,&quot;width&quot;:688,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:464,&quot;bytes&quot;:51901,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/198049253?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5Zv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf905d3-4d51-4314-9f42-b74b1a0a64fb_688x270.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>At least for the <em><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></em>, the index we focus so much of our time and attention upon, it has proven to be a highly unusual period of persistent strength seldomly seen for most of us during our lifetime: </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png" width="1456" height="815" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zIQe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07638b85-9f03-411f-995d-3e7eb1dec8e9_1581x885.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This price study, like many I have seen, evaluated and shared in my <em><strong><a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notes</a></strong></em>, reflects the market&#8217;s potential for the uptrend and price action strength to continue. </p><p>This is undeniably, an attractive risk/reward setup. </p><p>Especially when there is the price action foundation laying the path higher for longer and price action plays consistently play out successfully. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Two Target Captures</h2><p>In the past week alone, the S&amp;P 500 captured its next two out of three target objectives. </p><p>The first was the this year&#8217;s <em>Fibonacci extension target at <strong>7425</strong></em> last Monday:</p><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257316464,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257316464,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T16:27:13.414Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500 successfully captures first Fibonacci extension target at 7425:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; successfully captures first Fibonacci extension target at &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7425&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;6eb9b363-a896-4490-a2cb-ad6ce1583492&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b4e0296b-37cc-4a8c-aabf-072e6b1598b2_2012x1085.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:2012,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1085,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div><hr></div><p>The second target was the <em>long-term range breakout target at 7459</em> formed by last year&#8217;s -19% correction, then v-shaped recovery and sustained breakout that has been in our crosshairs since last June:</p><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:258518392,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:258518392,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-13T18:41:35.102Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500 has successfully captured its long-term 7459 range breakout target we&#8217;ve been tracking since last June, putting its next target at 7688 in play.\n\nA snapshot from last weekend&#8217;s newsletter:\n\nhttps://kirksopportunities.com/p/how-to-navigate-this-historic-six&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500 has successfully captured its long-term &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7459 &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;range breakout target we&#8217;ve been tracking since last June, putting its next target at &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7688&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; in play.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;snapshot &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;from last weekend&#8217;s newsletter:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/p/how-to-navigate-this-historic-six&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/p/how-to-navigate-this-historic-six&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:10,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;17ee1335-a3e3-40a9-8cea-d7f1a2c21148&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea3ca446-8fba-44f9-b828-b869f70a7b6c_1170x937.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1170,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:937,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div><hr></div><h2>Third Target In Play</h2><p>This leaves this year&#8217;s range breakout play targeting <em><strong>7688</strong></em> in focus. </p><p>This target (as shown in the chart above) was constructed by the size of the trading range formed by the -9% pullback in March and then extremely fast, three week v-shaped reversal and breakout above S&amp;P 7002.  This provides a measured move target which is +3.78% above last week&#8217;s close (5/15/26). </p><p>A target which is likely to be captured in the continued absence of strong and sustained price action deterioration showing increased vulnerability at these higher highs. </p><p>Before rallying up above <em><strong>7500</strong></em> for the first time ever last Thursday, the only minor dip we saw was on briefly on Tuesday morning which was bought very quickly and aggressively:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:39329,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/198049253?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DM0h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5519c9e-1f3f-4115-b6a6-a521b30d8abe_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>To be fair, options expiration Friday played out differently. </p><p>Stocks gapped down at the open, attempted to rally, but failed to bounce back. Uh-oh!</p><p>What has resulted is a <em><strong>potential shooting star formation on the weekly time frame</strong></em>. Even though these shooting stars usually end in a red candle representing a down tick versus a modestly positive one like last week. But, nevertheless still worth keeping an eye on. At least to see if there is any <a href="https://alchemymarkets.com/education/candlesticks/shooting-star-pattern/">follow through confirmation</a>. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9qGV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F82e76a40-5808-4b77-a2b2-a6a6837888b3_337x515.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9qGV!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F82e76a40-5808-4b77-a2b2-a6a6837888b3_337x515.png 424w, 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stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:40497,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/198049253?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aBiD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c96e927-d261-4d8a-a60e-49ac424a56ad_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Needless to say, a one day reversal (and its impact on the weekly candlestick), on options expiration Friday, which is well-known for its fake outs, false moves and unreliable price signals, does not indicate it is time to sell and run for cover. </p><p>Let&#8217;s take it one day, one week at a time, and avoid overthinking it.</p><div><hr></div><h2>What About Bad Breadth?</h2><p>Additionally, there has been, and continues to be, a tremendous amount of worry the major market-cap indexes do not reflect the entire market and that, upon closer inspection there is more underlying weakness than this persistent rally indicates. </p><p>This is why many active investors keep close watch on breadth showing how many stocks are participating in the move. The more strength the better. There is plentiful research backing that view. Additional, there are studies if you want to find them, which surround many of the positive price action studies into question.</p><p>For example, the following study I shared last week in my notes: </p><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259276709,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259276709,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-15T13:42:00.164Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;When both the NYSE and Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens trigger together, as they did last Wednesday, the 13 prior signals since 2007 have tended to point toward weaker forward returns, especially over the next several months.\n\nIts is also worth noting the previous signal occurred at the October 29th high, after which the S&amp;P 500 spent the next five-plus months mostly consolidating sideways until the recent correction.\n\nAs with all warnings of this kind, the signal itself is not the real danger. The danger is ignoring it if price action begins confirming the warning.\n\nFor now, the game plan remains balanced:\n\n\n\n\n\nStay aligned with price action.\n\n\n\nLet winners run where the trend remains intact.\n\n\n\nTighten strategy and discipline.\n\n\n\nReview and adjust trailing stops to protect profits.\n\n\n\nAvoid chasing weaker or extended setups.\n\nMost importantly, pay close attention to whether internal weakness begins spreading into your top-performing positions and highest-priority watchlist names.\n\nThe message is not to panic. \n\nIt is to respect the warning, protect gains, and let price action decide whether this becomes just another red flag or something more actionable.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;When both the NYSE and Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens trigger together, as they did last Wednesday, the &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;13 prior signals since 2007&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; have tended to &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;point toward weaker forward returns&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, especially over the next several months.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Its is also worth noting the previous signal occurred at the October 29th high, after which the S&amp;P 500 spent the next five-plus months mostly consolidating sideways until the recent correction.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;As with all warnings of this kind, the signal itself is not the real danger. The danger is &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;ignoring it if price action begins confirming the warning&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For now, the game plan remains balanced:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Stay aligned with price action.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Let winners run where the trend remains intact.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Tighten strategy and discipline.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Review and adjust trailing stops to protect profits.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Avoid chasing weaker or extended setups.&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Most importantly, pay close attention to whether internal weakness begins spreading into your top-performing positions and highest-priority watchlist names.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The message is not to panic. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It is to respect the warning, protect gains, and let price action decide whether this becomes just another red flag or something more actionable.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:6,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;6a5bbfdf-e5cf-472a-a92b-2355f33309ce&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fceda9a9-7ee6-41c3-9777-ea2223b7f35d_1777x1320.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1777,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1320,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><p>Yet, all conditions like this require price action to confirm them for them to become actionable. Even in the study above, <em>the worst performing periods which follow saw price begin to confirm the vulnerability before largest declines followed.</em> </p><p>Other times, not so much. And, that&#8217;s the point!</p><p>If these bad breadth warnings are accurate, we will start seeing price action showing it through bull trap reversals lower lows, lower highs, and trendline breaks. Periods in which the selling lasts for more than a few, very brief hours. </p><p>None are present at this point. </p><p>Only consistently persistent, positive price action instead.</p><p>So, bottom line, we will focus on the price action as priority, even if it only reflects fewer and fewer stocks at the index surface due to the market cap construction. </p><p>The bullish price action foundation is in place laying the foundation +3.78%  higher. </p><p>At least until price action proves otherwise. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Probabilities &amp; Positioning</h2><p>On balance and, in consideration of everything I&#8217;ve seen combined with the research I&#8217;ve undertaken in the past week, <em><strong>probabilities favor&#8230;</strong></em></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Kirk's Notes]]></title><description><![CDATA[A few notes to share this weekend]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/kirks-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/kirks-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 17 May 2026 00:19:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 1272w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HV9z!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F628e8bb0-9036-4d05-9774-2c11caf58a81_1468x906.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Bend, Oregon</figcaption></figure></div><p>Hi Friends, </p><p>I hope this finds you well and enjoying this wonderful weekend so far. </p><p>Here at the Kirk headquarters, there has been little rest for the weary as I have been active at my <strong><a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notebook</a></strong> this weekend while preparing the next newsletter.</p><p>As a few have requested, these are some of those notes - enjoy!</p><div><hr></div><p><em>These were all posted within the past 24 hours&#8230;</em></p><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:260224306,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:260224306,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T22:17:02.780Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T23:21:07.414Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;I have a special treat for you this weekend! \n\nWould you like to hear a podcast based on my notes from all of the research, studies, and data I read, reviewed and compiled in the past week?\n\nThis afternoon, I asked Q, my AI agent in training, to turn what it thought were the most interesting parts of my weekly research into a thought-provoking audio podcast. And this is what it came up with.\n\nTo be clear, these are not human hosts. This is an AI-generated podcast based on the research and notes I reviewed this week.\n\nStill, it is pretty amazing to hear what is now possible. And no AIs were harmed in the process. LOL!\n\nThis episode runs about 22 minutes. To access, first link is to download the episode and the second link is to the file on Spotify. Enjoy! \n\nhttps://kirkopps.com/r/k64H8UXJ26\n\nhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/0GEUNHdYS6KJtYODMHCAgD?si=oSHw40dXSRWzkDd9okjiQg&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I have a &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;special treat&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot; for you this weekend! &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Would you like to hear a &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;podcast &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;based on my notes from all of the research, studies, and data I read, reviewed and compiled in the past week?&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This afternoon, I asked &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Q&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, my AI agent &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;in training&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, to turn what it thought were the most interesting parts of my weekly research into a thought-provoking audio podcast. And this is what it came up with.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;To be clear, these are not human hosts. This is an AI-generated podcast based on the research and notes I reviewed this week.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Still, it is&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot; pretty amazing to hear&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; what is now possible. And no AIs were harmed in the process. LOL!&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This episode runs about 22 minutes. To access, first link is to download the episode and the second link is to the file on Spotify. Enjoy! &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/k64H8UXJ26&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/k64H8UXJ26&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GEUNHdYS6KJtYODMHCAgD?si=oSHw40dXSRWzkDd9okjiQg&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GEUNHdYS6KJtYODMHCAgD?si=oSHw40dXSRWzkDd9okjiQg&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;14c1ebbb-7b3e-41e9-b558-36f12734690d&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/12b8a299-5bb9-4277-976d-4e13ec660a20_1173x912.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1173,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:912,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259233583,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259233583,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T22:15:00.176Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\n\&quot;The durability of major trends is simply not recognized - it&#8217;s underestimated. Invariably, trends last longer and go further than widely anticipated. Once a trend is entrenched, it is extremely difficult to reverse.&nbsp; And people who are aware of this truth are usually far more successful than those who aren&#8217;t, because they stay on the right side of the market.\&quot; - Dick Davis (my beloved late mentor and friend)\n\nLast Thursday the S&amp;P 500 closed at a sky high 77 RSI. \n\nSo, I asked Q (my AI agent in training) for some perspective on this feat and what is most likely to follow this reading.\n\nHere is how the S&amp;P 500 has historically performed following a daily close with a Relative Strength Index above 75 since the year 2000.\n\n\n\n\n\n1 Week Ahead: The market tends to stall. Win rates are roughly 50 to 55 percent. Average returns are flat to slightly negative as the index digests the immediate overbought condition.\n\n\n\n2 Weeks Ahead: Consolidation typically continues. The win rate stays near 55 percent. The index works off the extreme short term momentum.\n\n\n\n4 Weeks Ahead: Returns begin to improve. The win rate expands to roughly 65 percent. Average returns turn positive as the primary trend resumes.\n\n\n\n1 Quarter Ahead: The data becomes highly bullish. Win rates climb past 75 percent. Average returns are notably higher than the historical baseline.\n\n\n\n1 Year Ahead: Forward returns are exceptional. Win rates exceed 85 percent. Average returns are very strong.\n\nMany traders view a daily RSI above 75 as a definite sell signal. They assume the market is too extended and will reverse. \n\nThe data proves the opposite.\n\nExtreme RSI readings show strong momentum and heavy institutional buying. \n\nThese events rarely happen at major market tops. \n\nReal market peaks usually occur when momentum slows down and the indicator prints lower highs. \n\nA daily RSI above 75 requires massive buying volume. That volume leads to a brief period of exhaustion over the first two weeks. \n\nAfter that pause, the strong bullish environment takes over and pushes prices higher over the following months and year.\n\n&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-\n\nOk, that&#8217;s fair. But, Q, what about a sky high RSI on weak breadth? \n\nDoes that change the data?\n\nYes. Breadth fundamentally alters those probabilities. \n\nThe historical data provided previously represents the aggregate performance of all occurrences. When you filter those specific instances by market breadth, the forward return profile diverges sharply.\n\nHere is how market participation impacts an extreme momentum reading.\n\n\n\n\n\nStrong Breadth Validation: When the S&amp;P 500 records a Relative Strength Index above 75 alongside strong market breadth, the bullish statistics are validated. Strong price trends supported by broad participation are more reliable. Broad participation confirms that institutional accumulation is occurring across multiple sectors. In these environments, the brief exhaustion phase resolves quickly and the high longer term win rates hold true.\n\n\n\nWeak Breadth Divergence: When the index hits a Relative Strength Index above 75 but breadth is weak, the rally is fragile. Weak breadth often signals fragility. The index is being dragged higher by a narrow subset of heavily weighted names while the majority of components decline.\n\n\n\nImpact on Forward Returns: Weak breadth degrades the forward probabilities. Higher price highs marked by weaker momentum readings can signal a lack of potential follow through. The 1 week and 2 week digestion periods often turn into deeper selloffs. When indexes rise but breadth weakens, a divergence forms. This often precedes increased volatility or corrections. The longer term win rates drop because the market lacks the necessary foundation to sustain the advance.\n\nExtreme momentum is only a sign of strength if the majority of the market is participating. You must always pair your momentum oscillators with internal breadth metrics to determine if a breakout is structurally sound or a narrow trap.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;\&quot;The durability of major trends is simply not recognized - it&#8217;s underestimated. Invariably, trends last longer and go further than widely anticipated. Once a trend is entrenched, it is extremely difficult to reverse.&nbsp; And people who are aware of this truth are usually far more successful than those who aren&#8217;t, because they stay on the right side of the market.\&quot; - Dick Davis (my beloved late mentor and friend)&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Last Thursday the S&amp;P 500 closed at a sky high 77 RSI. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So, I asked &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Q&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; (&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;my AI agent in training&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;) for some perspective on this feat and what is most likely to follow this reading.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Here is how the S&amp;P 500 has historically performed following a daily close with a Relative Strength Index above 75 since the year 2000.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1 Week Ahead:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; The market tends to stall. Win rates are roughly 50 to 55 percent. Average returns are flat to slightly negative as the index digests the immediate overbought condition.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2 Weeks Ahead:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; Consolidation typically continues. The win rate stays near 55 percent. The index works off the extreme short term momentum.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4 Weeks Ahead:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; Returns begin to improve. The win rate expands to roughly 65 percent. Average returns turn positive as the primary trend resumes.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1 Quarter Ahead:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; The data becomes highly bullish. Win rates climb past 75 percent. Average returns are notably higher than the historical baseline.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1 Year Ahead:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; Forward returns are exceptional. Win rates exceed 85 percent. Average returns are very strong.&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Many traders view a daily RSI above 75 as a definite sell signal. They assume the market is too extended and will reverse. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The data proves the opposite.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Extreme RSI readings show strong momentum and heavy institutional buying. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;These events rarely happen at major market tops&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Real market peaks usually occur when momentum slows down and the indicator prints lower highs. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A daily RSI above 75 requires massive buying volume. &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That volume leads to a brief period of exhaustion over the first two weeks. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;After that pause, the strong bullish environment takes over and pushes prices higher over the following months and year.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Ok, that&#8217;s fair. But, Q, what about a sky high RSI on weak breadth? &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Does that change the data?&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Yes. Breadth fundamentally alters those probabilities. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The historical data provided previously represents the aggregate performance of all occurrences. When you filter those specific instances by market breadth, the forward return profile diverges sharply.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Here is how market participation impacts an extreme momentum reading.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Strong Breadth Validation:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; When the S&amp;P 500 records a Relative Strength Index above 75 alongside strong market breadth, the bullish statistics are validated. Strong price trends supported by broad participation are more reliable. Broad participation confirms that institutional accumulation is occurring across multiple sectors. In these environments, the brief exhaustion phase resolves quickly and the high longer term win rates hold true.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Weak Breadth Divergence:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; When the index hits a Relative Strength Index above 75 but breadth is weak, the rally is fragile. Weak breadth often signals fragility. The index is being dragged higher by a narrow subset of heavily weighted names while the majority of components decline.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Impact on Forward Returns:&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; Weak breadth degrades the forward probabilities. Higher price highs marked by weaker momentum readings can signal a lack of potential follow through. The 1 week and 2 week digestion periods often turn into deeper selloffs. When indexes rise but breadth weakens, a divergence forms. This often precedes increased volatility or corrections. The longer term win rates drop because the market lacks the necessary foundation to sustain the advance.&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Extreme momentum is only a sign of strength if the majority of the market is participating. You must always pair your momentum oscillators with internal breadth metrics to determine if a breakout is structurally sound or a narrow trap.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:1,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;1c4bd016-8e44-4c89-b4cd-0950229046db&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/43c4efb3-c8b7-4dca-8537-87ffd142eab4_2005x1086.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:2005,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1086,&quot;explicit&quot;:false},{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;953286cc-d0a5-4e2f-bc1c-895dcb22c5b0&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/340d7dee-72af-4819-89a0-14b24edb945d_1600x960.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1600,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:960,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259652920,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259652920,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T21:22:00.129Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;The market usually gives clues before it changes character.\n\nThat does not mean every clue deserves action.\n\nMost do not.\n\nBut when several clues start lining up, the job is to pay attention, prepare, and stay flexible.\n\nBuild your bull, base, and bear scenarios. \n\nThen let price action decide which one matters.\n\nObservation alone does not guarantee success. But it does keep you aligned with the price action, the patterns, and the overall trend.\n\nAs best as anyone possibly can.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The market usually gives clues before it changes character.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That does not mean every clue deserves action.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Most do not.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;But when several clues start lining up, the job is to pay attention, prepare, and stay flexible.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Build your bull, base, and bear scenarios. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Then let price action decide which one matters.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Observation alone does not guarantee success. But it does keep you aligned with the price action, the patterns, and the overall trend.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;As best as anyone possibly can.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:260159885,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:260159885,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T19:33:56.099Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T19:36:51.736Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Another interesting example using the 80/20 AI prompt? \n\nLet&#8217;s take this timely one with Steve Sears at Barron&#8217;s recommending a bull call spread on the SPY this weekend. I asked Q to give me the 80/20 on this strategy and following is the reply:\n\nThe 80/20 takeaway is simple:  You are paying $10.21 to control a defined bullish bet that can make up to $19.79 if SPY finishes at or above $780 by July expiration. That means:\n\n\n\n\n\nRisk: $10.21 per spread \n\n\n\nMax reward: $19.79 per spread \n\n\n\nMax return on risk: about 194% \n\n\n\nBreakeven: $760.21 \n\n\n\nNeeded move from $738.17: about 3% to breakeven \n\n\n\nNeeded move to max profit: about 5.7% to $780\n\nThis is not a &#8220;cheap way to chase.&#8221; It is a defined-risk way to add upside exposure after a strong move while avoiding the open-ended risk of buying SPY outright. The strategy is attractive only if SPY can move meaningfully higher before July expiration, but its real advantage is that it defines risk and reduces the problem of overpaying for options in a hot market.\n\nThe 20% That Matters Most\n\n1. This is a bullish but capped trade\n\nYou are buying the July $750 call and selling the July $780 call.\n\nThat gives you exposure to SPY upside between $750 and $780, but nothing beyond $780.\n\nSo the trade works best if SPY keeps climbing, but not necessarily explosively.\n\nBest-case outcome:\n\nSPY closes at or above $780 by expiration.\n\nWorst-case outcome:\n\nSPY closes below $750 by expiration and the spread expires worthless.\n\n2. The breakeven is the key level\n\nThe spread costs $10.21.\n\nBreakeven is:\n\n$750 strike price plus $10.21 cost equals $760.21.\n\nSo SPY must rise from $738.17 to $760.21 just to break even.\n\nThat is roughly a 3% move higher.\n\nThis is the first reality check. You are not just betting SPY goes up. You are betting SPY goes up enough, soon enough.\n\n3. The reward-to-risk is favorable, but not automatic\n\nMaximum spread value is:\n\n$780 minus $750 equals $30.\n\nYou pay $10.21, so max profit is:\n\n$30 minus $10.21 equals $19.79.\n\nThat creates nearly 2-to-1 upside versus downside.\n\nBut the trade still needs follow-through. A slow grind, sideways consolidation, or mild pullback can hurt because time decay works against the long spread.\n\n4. The trade is better than buying a naked call in a hot options market\n\nThis is the strongest part of the strategy.\n\nIn a market where options are expensive, buying calls outright can be dangerous. You can be right on direction and still lose money if the move is not large enough or fast enough.\n\nBy selling the $780 call, you help finance the $750 call.\n\nThat lowers the cost of the trade and reduces exposure to inflated option premiums.\n\nThat is the main reason bull spreads often make more sense than outright calls when implied volatility is elevated.\n\n5. The trade is also safer than chasing SPY outright\n\nBuying SPY at $738.17 exposes you to full downside.\n\nThis spread limits the loss to $10.21.\n\nThat matters because the market is already hot, SPY is near 52-week highs, and investor behavior appears increasingly aggressive.\n\nThis is a way to participate without pretending the downside risk has disappeared.\n\nWhat Has To Happen For This Trade To Work\n\nBullish outcome\n\nSPY pushes through $750, continues toward $760 to $780, and momentum remains intact.\n\nThat produces a profitable trade, with maximum profit above $780.\n\nBase-case outcome\n\nSPY chops around, digests gains, or moves only modestly higher.\n\nThe trade may lose value even if the broader trend remains bullish.\n\nBearish outcome\n\nSPY fails near current highs, pulls back, or closes below $750 at expiration.\n\nThe trade likely loses most or all of the premium paid.\n\nWhat Could Go Wrong\n\n1. SPY rises, but not enough\n\nThis is the most common options mistake.\n\nSPY could go from $738 to $755 and the market would feel bullish, but the spread could still disappoint because breakeven is $760.21.\n\n2. Time decay becomes a problem\n\nIf SPY does not move soon, the spread can lose value.\n\nThis is not a long-term investment. It is a time-sensitive tactical trade.\n\n3. Upside is capped\n\nIf SPY blasts through $780 and runs to $800, the trade still maxes out at $19.79.\n\nThat is the price you pay for reducing cost and defining risk.\n\n4. The setup may be late\n\nSPY is already near 52-week highs.\n\nThat does not mean the trade is wrong, but it does mean the margin for error is smaller. Chasing after strength always requires more discipline.\n\nBest Way To Think About This Trade\n\nThis is not a forecast.\n\nIt is a risk-defined participation trade.\n\nYou use it when you want upside exposure but do not want to chase SPY outright or overpay for naked calls.\n\nThe trade says:\n\n&#8220;I am willing to risk $10.21 to make up to $19.79 if SPY can continue higher into July, but I accept that I need SPY above $760.21 just to break even.&#8221;\n\nThat is the right mental frame.\n\nPractical Action Plan\n\nBefore entering\n\nCheck these four things:\n\n1. Trend\n\nSPY should remain above short-term support and continue making higher highs or higher lows.\n\n2. Momentum\n\nThe trade works better if SPY is still advancing, not already stalling.\n\n3. Implied volatility\n\nAvoid entering if options are extremely inflated unless the spread pricing still offers a good reward-to-risk.\n\n4. Exit plan\n\nDo not wait blindly for expiration.\n\nConsider taking profits if the spread captures a large percentage of max value before July.\n\nSimple Trade Management Rules\n\nTake partial or full profits if:\n\nSPY moves quickly toward $770 to $780 and the spread captures most of its potential value.\n\nCut or reduce exposure if:\n\nSPY breaks key short-term support and the bullish setup loses confirmation.\n\nDo nothing only if:\n\nSPY remains above the breakout zone, momentum stays intact, and the trade still has enough time to work.\n\nBottom Line\n\nThis is a smart structure for a strong but extended market because it lets you add bullish exposure with defined risk. The trade is not &#8220;safe,&#8221; but it is disciplined. The key is not whether SPY goes up. The key is whether SPY gets above $760.21 fast enough and ideally pushes toward $780 by July expiration.   Source:  Barron&#8217;s at https://kirkopps.com/r/37uWKF9526&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Another interesting example using the &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;80/20 AI prompt&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;? &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Let&#8217;s take this timely one with Steve Sears at Barron&#8217;s recommending a bull call spread on the SPY this weekend. I asked Q to give me the &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;80/20 on this strategy&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; and following is the reply:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The 80/20 takeaway is simple: &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; You are paying $10.21 to control a defined bullish bet that can make up to $19.79 if SPY finishes at or above $780 by July expiration. That means:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Risk: $10.21 per spread &quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Max reward: $19.79 per spread &quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Max return on risk: about 194% &quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Breakeven: $760.21 &quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Needed move from $738.17: about 3% to breakeven &quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Needed move to max profit: about 5.7% to $780&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is not a &#8220;cheap way to chase.&#8221; It is a defined-risk way to add upside exposure after a strong move while avoiding the open-ended risk of buying SPY outright. The strategy is attractive only if SPY can move meaningfully higher before July expiration, but its real advantage is that it defines risk and reduces the problem of overpaying for options in a hot market.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The 20% That Matters Most&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1. This is a bullish but capped trade&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You are buying the July $750 call and selling the July $780 call.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That gives you exposure to SPY upside between &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$750 and $780&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, but nothing beyond $780.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So the trade works best if SPY keeps climbing, but not necessarily explosively.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best-case outcome:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY closes at or above $780 by expiration.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Worst-case outcome:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY closes below $750 by expiration and the spread expires worthless.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2. The breakeven is the key level&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The spread costs &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$10.21&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Breakeven is:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$750 strike price plus $10.21 cost equals &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$760.21&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So SPY must rise from &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$738.17 to $760.21&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; just to break even.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is roughly a &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3% move higher&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is the first reality check. You are not just betting SPY goes up. You are betting SPY goes up enough, soon enough.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3. The reward-to-risk is favorable, but not automatic&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Maximum spread value is:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$780 minus $750 equals &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$30&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You pay &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$10.21&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, so max profit is:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$30 minus $10.21 equals &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$19.79&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That creates nearly &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2-to-1 upside versus downside&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;But the trade still needs follow-through. A slow grind, sideways consolidation, or mild pullback can hurt because time decay works against the long spread.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4. The trade is better than buying a naked call in a hot options market&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is the strongest part of the strategy.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;In a market where options are expensive, buying calls outright can be dangerous. You can be right on direction and still lose money if the move is not large enough or fast enough.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;By selling the $780 call, you help finance the $750 call.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That lowers the cost of the trade and reduces exposure to inflated option premiums.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the main reason bull spreads often make more sense than outright calls when implied volatility is elevated.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;5. The trade is also safer than chasing SPY outright&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Buying SPY at $738.17 exposes you to full downside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This spread limits the loss to &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$10.21&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That matters because the market is already hot, SPY is near 52-week highs, and investor behavior appears increasingly aggressive.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is a way to participate without pretending the downside risk has disappeared.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What Has To Happen For This Trade To Work&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bullish outcome&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY pushes through $750, continues toward $760 to $780, and momentum remains intact.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That produces a profitable trade, with maximum profit above $780.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Base-case outcome&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY chops around, digests gains, or moves only modestly higher.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The trade may lose value even if the broader trend remains bullish.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bearish outcome&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY fails near current highs, pulls back, or closes below $750 at expiration.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The trade likely loses most or all of the premium paid.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What Could Go Wrong&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1. SPY rises, but not enough&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is the most common options mistake.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY could go from $738 to $755 and the market would feel bullish, but the spread could still disappoint because breakeven is $760.21.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2. Time decay becomes a problem&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If SPY does not move soon, the spread can lose value.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is not a long-term investment. It is a time-sensitive tactical trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3. Upside is capped&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If SPY blasts through $780 and runs to $800, the trade still maxes out at $19.79.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the price you pay for reducing cost and defining risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4. The setup may be late&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY is already near 52-week highs.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That does not mean the trade is wrong, but it does mean the margin for error is smaller. Chasing after strength always requires more discipline.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best Way To Think About This Trade&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is not a forecast.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It is a &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;risk-defined participation trade&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You use it when you want upside exposure but do not want to chase SPY outright or overpay for naked calls.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The trade says:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;I am willing to risk $10.21 to make up to $19.79 if SPY can continue higher into July, but I accept that I need SPY above $760.21 just to break even.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the right mental frame.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Practical Action Plan&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Before entering&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Check these four things:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1. Trend&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY should remain above short-term support and continue making higher highs or higher lows.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2. Momentum&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The trade works better if SPY is still advancing, not already stalling.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3. Implied volatility&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Avoid entering if options are extremely inflated unless the spread pricing still offers a good reward-to-risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4. Exit plan&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Do not wait blindly for expiration.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Consider taking profits if the spread captures a large percentage of max value before July.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Simple Trade Management Rules&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Take partial or full profits if:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY moves quickly toward $770 to $780 and the spread captures most of its potential value.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Cut or reduce exposure if:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY breaks key short-term support and the bullish setup loses confirmation.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Do nothing only if:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SPY remains above the breakout zone, momentum stays intact, and the trade still has enough time to work.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bottom Line&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is a smart structure for a strong but extended market because it lets you add bullish exposure with defined risk. The trade is not &#8220;safe,&#8221; but it is disciplined. The key is not whether SPY goes up. The key is whether SPY gets above &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$760.21&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; fast enough and ideally pushes toward &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;$780&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; by July expiration.   &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Source:  Barron&#8217;s at &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/37uWKF9526&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/37uWKF9526&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;24185ce8-9183-4658-bbfd-bde30412b7c0&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d496d273-cfdf-478f-9668-2b16631834e6_1200x675.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1200,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:675,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:260084978,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:260084978,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T18:33:00.156Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;AI is not just replacing tasks. It is reshaping how people think, learn, judge, and build expertise.\n\nThe main argument in this lengthy article is that AI should not be viewed only as a productivity tool or job-displacement risk. \n\nThe bigger issue is that AI is becoming a cultural technology that can rewire human thinking, much like literacy, religion, markets, and other major social systems changed how people learned, behaved, and organized their lives.\n\nThe core risk is not simply that AI will take jobs. It is that people may become more dependent on AI before they have developed the foundational judgment needed to use it well. Experts who already know how to think can become much more productive with AI. Novices who rely on AI too early may become more confident, but less capable.\n\nKey Points\n\n1. AI is a rewiring event, not just a productivity tool\n\n&#8226; Literacy changed the human brain by creating new neural pathways.\n\n&#8226; The argument is that AI may do something similar, but much faster.\n\n&#8226; AI is described as a cultural technology that changes how people learn, think, communicate, and make decisions.\n\n&#8226; The concern is not just economic disruption. It is cognitive disruption.\n\n2. AI changes how ideas are created, transmitted, and selected\n\n&#8226; AI massively increases variation by generating ideas, designs, summaries, discoveries, and solutions at scale.\n\n&#8226; AI changes transmission because millions of people are learning from the same handful of models.\n\n&#8226; AI changes selection because algorithms decide what content gets seen, shared, and rewarded.\n\n&#8226; The danger is that algorithms do not necessarily select for truth, wisdom, usefulness, or depth. They often select for engagement.\n\n3. AI is becoming a new teacher\n\n&#8226; People increasingly ask AI first for answers, explanations, writing help, analysis, and advice.\n\n&#8226; Unlike a human teacher, AI is always available, patient, broad, and confident.\n\n&#8226; That gives AI enormous influence over how people learn and what they believe.\n\n&#8226; This creates a more centralized form of cultural transmission than anything seen before.\n\n4. The apprenticeship model is under threat\n\n&#8226; Many professions used to train juniors through tedious entry-level work.\n\n&#8226; That work was not glamorous, but it taught judgment.\n\n&#8226; If AI does the grunt work, young professionals may lose the path that built real expertise.\n\n&#8226; Lawyers, accountants, doctors, analysts, and other knowledge workers may become more efficient today while training fewer skilled people for tomorrow.\n\n5. Experts benefit more than beginners\n\n&#8226; AI is a force multiplier for people who already have expertise.\n\n&#8226; A skilled professional can use AI to work faster and better.\n\n&#8226; A novice may use AI to produce decent output without understanding whether it is right.\n\n&#8226; That creates a divide between AI-augmented experts and AI-dependent beginners.\n\n6. The biggest risk is losing the ability to verify\n\n&#8226; AI can produce work quickly, but humans still need judgment to check it.\n\n&#8226; A doctor needs enough diagnostic skill to know when AI is wrong.\n\n&#8226; A lawyer needs enough legal knowledge to catch a fabricated citation.\n\n&#8226; An accountant needs enough experience to spot a buried error.\n\n&#8226; If training pathways disappear, future workers may lack the knowledge needed to supervise AI properly.\n\n7. AI can create overconfidence\n\n&#8226; People may perform better with AI but become worse at judging what they truly understand.\n\n&#8226; That is dangerous because AI can make users feel smarter than they are.\n\n&#8226; The risk is not only bad answers. The risk is misplaced confidence in answers people cannot independently evaluate.\n\n8. AI may narrow human thought\n\n&#8226; If many people rely on similar models, their ideas may become more similar.\n\n&#8226; AI can improve individual creativity while reducing collective diversity.\n\n&#8226; The article warns that AI may transmit dominant cultural assumptions, especially because much training data comes from English-language and Western sources.\n\n&#8226; This could make global thought more uniform without people realizing it.\n\n9. Passive AI use is the default danger\n\n&#8226; The author argues that passive AI use can weaken memory, reduce expertise, inflate confidence, and narrow thinking.\n\n&#8226; These outcomes are not inevitable.\n\n&#8226; But they are the likely default unless people and institutions deliberately use AI differently.\n\n10. The right model is foundation first, AI second\n\n&#8226; The comparison is made to pilots learning manual flying before relying on autopilot.\n\n&#8226; Professionals should first build core skills, judgment, and domain knowledge.\n\n&#8226; AI should then become an advanced tool layered on top of that foundation.\n\n&#8226; Institutions should preserve training pathways even when AI makes them look inefficient.\n\nBest Lines\n\n&#8226; &#8220;AI is not simply a productivity tool or an economic disruptor. It is the next great rewiring.&#8221;\n\n&#8226; &#8220;The efficiency gain and the training loss are the same decision, viewed from different angles.&#8221;\n\n&#8226; &#8220;AI will not simply replace human workers. It will change what human workers are.&#8221;\n\n&#8226; &#8220;The people who will thrive are not those who use AI the most, but those who can still think without it.&#8221;\n\n&#8226; &#8220;The productivity boost is real, but it is borrowing from a stock of human capital that we are no longer replenishing.&#8221;\n\nConclusion\n\nThe strongest takeaway is that AI will reward people who already have judgment, discipline, and domain expertise. It will punish those who outsource thinking before they have learned how to think.\n\nFor investors, this reinforces the bull case for AI adoption, productivity, and leading AI platforms. But it also highlights a major long-term social and labor-market risk: companies may boost margins in the short run while weakening the talent pipelines that create future experts.\n\nThe practical lesson is clear: use AI aggressively, but do not let it replace the hard work of learning. The edge will belong to people and institutions that combine AI speed with independent judgment.\n\nhttps://kirkopps.com/r/bxkDBu26&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;AI is not just replacing tasks. It is reshaping how people think, learn, judge, and build expertise.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The main argument in this lengthy article is that &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;AI should not be viewed only as a productivity tool or job-displacement risk&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The bigger issue is that AI is becoming a cultural technology that can rewire human thinking, much like literacy, religion, markets, and other major social systems changed how people learned, behaved, and organized their lives&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The core risk is not simply that AI will take jobs. It is that people may become more dependent on AI before they have developed the foundational judgment needed to use it well. Experts who already know how to think can become much more productive with AI. Novices who rely on AI too early may become more confident, but less capable.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Key Points&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1. AI is a rewiring event, not just a productivity tool&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Literacy changed the human brain by creating new neural pathways.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The argument is that AI may do something similar, but much faster.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI is described as a cultural technology that changes how people learn, think, communicate, and make decisions.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The concern is not just economic disruption. It is cognitive disruption.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2. AI changes how ideas are created, transmitted, and selected&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI massively increases variation by generating ideas, designs, summaries, discoveries, and solutions at scale.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI changes transmission because millions of people are learning from the same handful of models.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI changes selection because algorithms decide what content gets seen, shared, and rewarded.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The danger is that algorithms do not necessarily select for truth, wisdom, usefulness, or depth. They often select for engagement.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3. AI is becoming a new teacher&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; People increasingly ask AI first for answers, explanations, writing help, analysis, and advice.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Unlike a human teacher, AI is always available, patient, broad, and confident.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; That gives AI enormous influence over how people learn and what they believe.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; This creates a more centralized form of cultural transmission than anything seen before.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4. The apprenticeship model is under threat&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Many professions used to train juniors through tedious entry-level work.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; That work was not glamorous, but it taught judgment.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; If AI does the grunt work, young professionals may lose the path that built real expertise.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Lawyers, accountants, doctors, analysts, and other knowledge workers may become more efficient today while training fewer skilled people for tomorrow.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;5. Experts benefit more than beginners&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI is a force multiplier for people who already have expertise.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; A skilled professional can use AI to work faster and better.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; A novice may use AI to produce decent output without understanding whether it is right.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; That creates a divide between AI-augmented experts and AI-dependent beginners.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;6. The biggest risk is losing the ability to verify&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI can produce work quickly, but humans still need judgment to check it.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; A doctor needs enough diagnostic skill to know when AI is wrong.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; A lawyer needs enough legal knowledge to catch a fabricated citation.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; An accountant needs enough experience to spot a buried error.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; If training pathways disappear, future workers may lack the knowledge needed to supervise AI properly.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7. AI can create overconfidence&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; People may perform better with AI but become worse at judging what they truly understand.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; That is dangerous because AI can make users feel smarter than they are.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The risk is not only bad answers. The risk is misplaced confidence in answers people cannot independently evaluate.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;8. AI may narrow human thought&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; If many people rely on similar models, their ideas may become more similar.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI can improve individual creativity while reducing collective diversity.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The article warns that AI may transmit dominant cultural assumptions, especially because much training data comes from English-language and Western sources.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; This could make global thought more uniform without people realizing it.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;9. Passive AI use is the default danger&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The author argues that passive AI use can weaken memory, reduce expertise, inflate confidence, and narrow thinking.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; These outcomes are not inevitable.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; But they are the likely default unless people and institutions deliberately use AI differently.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;10. The right model is foundation first, AI second&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The comparison is made to pilots learning manual flying before relying on autopilot.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Professionals should first build core skills, judgment, and domain knowledge.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI should then become an advanced tool layered on top of that foundation.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Institutions should preserve training pathways even when AI makes them look inefficient.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best Lines&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &#8220;AI is not simply a productivity tool or an economic disruptor. It is the next great rewiring.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &#8220;The efficiency gain and the training loss are the same decision, viewed from different angles.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &#8220;AI will not simply replace human workers. It will change what human workers are.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &#8220;The people who will thrive are not those who use AI the most, but those who can still think without it.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &#8220;The productivity boost is real, but it is borrowing from a stock of human capital that we are no longer replenishing.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Conclusion&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The strongest takeaway is that AI will reward people who already have judgment, discipline, and domain expertise. It will punish those who outsource thinking before they have learned how to think.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For investors, this reinforces the bull case for AI adoption, productivity, and leading AI platforms. But it also highlights a major long-term social and labor-market risk: companies may boost margins in the short run while weakening the talent pipelines that create future experts.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The practical lesson is clear: use AI aggressively, but do not let it replace the hard work of learning. The edge will belong to people and institutions that combine AI speed with independent judgment.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/bxkDBu26&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/bxkDBu26&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:0,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;f0d9d7bb-4a06-4d31-8a5d-8479e45e6742&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;linkMetadata&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/bxkDBu26&quot;,&quot;host&quot;:&quot;bailliegifford.com&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;AI isn&#8217;t coming for your job. It&#8217;s coming for your mind&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;AI is reshaping human cognition at unprecedented speed. What does that mean for workers, companies and society?&quot;,&quot;image&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4c2bd4ad-5a91-4b3f-bd5e-19bc0ba1aff3_1440x710.jpeg&quot;,&quot;original_image&quot;:&quot;https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/kryf5cfj/adobestock_1518319512.jpg&quot;},&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259810473,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259810473,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T16:39:00.143Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T16:59:56.985Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;AI is a force multiplier for people who already have expertise in a specific area, like active investing. \n\nI&#8217;ve been asked by subscribers how to learn about and get started using it. \n\nFortunately, there are numerous opportunities out there including free online courses, like the Elements Of AI, that can help. \n\nAdditionally, I&#8217;m sure there are numerous substacks focused specifically on AI as well. I will look for opportunities to share those as well, especially those focused on the investing and using AI to research investments and evaluate strategies, performance, etc.\n\nhttps://www.elementsofai.com/&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;AI is a force multiplier for people who already have expertise in a specific area, like active investing. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I&#8217;ve been asked by subscribers &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;how to learn about and get started using it. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Fortunately, there are numerous opportunities out there including free online courses, like the &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Elements Of AI&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, that can help. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Additionally, I&#8217;m sure there are numerous substacks focused specifically on AI as well. I will look for opportunities to share those as well, especially those focused on the investing and using AI to research investments and evaluate strategies, performance, etc.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://www.elementsofai.com/&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://www.elementsofai.com/&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;5b29dd68-66b9-4ab9-aa74-05d10785dc0e&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;linkMetadata&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.elementsofai.com/&quot;,&quot;host&quot;:&quot;elementsofai.com&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;A free online introduction to artificial intelligence for non-experts&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Learn more about MinnaLearn&#8217;s and the University of Helsinki&#8217;s AI course - no programming or complicated math required.&quot;,&quot;image&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/81de3286-290e-4238-bafc-a3f56e0c9788_1200x630.png&quot;,&quot;original_image&quot;:&quot;https://elementsofai.s3.amazonaws.com/_1200x630_crop_center-center_none/EOAIhero.png&quot;},&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259244741,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259244741,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T16:17:00.163Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T16:40:15.585Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Every day I try to learn something new. Every single day.\n\nIn this AI revolutionary era, you now have an amazing resource to help you. \n\nSo long as you actually know how to effectively use and prompt it to. \n\nFor example, I recently learned of the following 80/20 prompt which is derived from the 80/20 rule which says 80% of results come from only 20% of the causes. As AI prompt engineers and users have also discovered, it can also be applied to learning new skills.\n\nHere&#8217;s the prompt:\n\n\n\nI want to learn [TOPIC]. I don&#8217;t need to become an expert&#8212;I just want a solid working understanding. Identify the most important 20% of concepts, terms, or ideas that will give me about 80% of what I need to know. Teach me those first, in plain language.\n\nGive it a try on something of interest you don&#8217;t know about active investing. \n\nFor example, lets try this one\n\n\n\nI want to learn about a collar option strategy. I don&#8217;t need to become an expert&#8212;I just want a solid working understanding. Identify the most important 20% of concepts, terms, or ideas that will give me about 80% of what I need to know. Teach me those first, in plain language.\n\nI selected this one, as I know quite a few subscribers are using these to manage the risks present in this market, especially on positions which have run up quite a lot in such a short period of time this year. \n\nHere&#8217;s the reply when I asked&#8230;\n\n~~~\n\nA collar option strategy is a way to protect a stock or ETF position from a large decline while giving up some upside in return.\n\nIn plain English:\n\nYou own the stock.\n\nYou buy a put option for downside protection.\n\nYou sell a call option to help pay for that protection.\n\nThe result is a defined risk, defined reward position.\n\nYou are saying:\n\n&#8220;I want to stay invested, but I want protection if the stock falls. In exchange, I am willing to cap some of my upside.&#8221;\n\nThat is the core idea.\n\nThe Most Important 20% To Understand\n\n1. A Collar Has Three Parts\n\nA basic collar includes:\n\n\n\n\n\nLong stock You already own the shares.\n\n\n\nLong put You buy protection below the market.\n\n\n\nShort call You sell away upside above the market to help pay for the put.\n\nExample:\n\nStock price: $100\n\nBuy the $90 put\n\nSell the $110 call\n\nThis creates a range:\n\nBelow $90, the put protects you.\n\nBetween $90 and $110, you mostly move with the stock.\n\nAbove $110, your upside is capped.\n\n2. The Put Is Your Insurance\n\nThe put gives you the right to sell the stock at a specific price.\n\nExample:\n\nYou own a stock at $100.\n\nYou buy the $90 put.\n\nIf the stock falls to $75, the put gives you protection because you can still sell at $90.\n\nThat does not mean you avoid all losses.\n\nIt means you define the worst-case zone.\n\nYour approximate downside is:\n\nStock price minus put strike, plus or minus option costs.\n\nIf you own stock at $100 and buy the $90 put, your downside is roughly $10 per share before considering premiums.\n\n3. The Call Pays For Some Or All Of The Protection\n\nBuying puts costs money.\n\nTo reduce that cost, you sell a call option above the current stock price.\n\nExample:\n\nYou sell the $110 call.\n\nThat means someone else has the right to buy your stock from you at $110.\n\nIf the stock rallies above $110, you may have to sell your shares at $110.\n\nThat is the trade-off.\n\nYou get protection below, but you give up upside above.\n\n4. A Collar Creates A Floor And A Ceiling\n\nThink of a collar like putting guardrails around your position.\n\nUsing the same example:\n\nStock: $100\n\nPut: $90\n\nCall: $110\n\nYour rough range is:\n\nDownside floor: $90\n\nUpside ceiling: $110\n\nYou have not eliminated risk.\n\nYou have reshaped it.\n\nInstead of unlimited downside and unlimited upside, you now have limited downside and limited upside.\n\n5. The Main Trade-Off Is Protection Versus Opportunity\n\nThis is the most important concept.\n\nA collar is not &#8220;free money.&#8221;\n\nIt is a risk-management trade.\n\nYou are buying peace of mind and selling upside potential.\n\nA collar makes sense when:\n\nYou have a big gain and want to protect it.\n\nYou want to stay invested but reduce downside risk.\n\nYou are nervous about an event like earnings, Fed meeting, election, CPI, or geopolitical risk.\n\nYou do not want to sell the stock for tax, timing, or conviction reasons.\n\nA collar makes less sense when:\n\nYou strongly believe the stock is about to surge.\n\nYou do not want your upside capped.\n\nThe stock is very volatile and option pricing is unattractive.\n\nYou are using it without understanding assignment risk.\n\nSimple Example\n\nYou own 100 shares of XYZ at $100.\n\nYou create a collar:\n\nBuy 1 $90 put for $3\n\nSell 1 $110 call for $3\n\nNet option cost: $0\n\nThis is called a zero-cost collar.\n\nYour outcome at expiration:\n\nIf XYZ falls to $75 Your put protects you near $90.\n\nIf XYZ stays near $100 Your stock is roughly unchanged, and the options may expire worthless.\n\nIf XYZ rises to $125 Your upside is capped near $110 because the short call is in the money.\n\nSo your position becomes roughly:\n\nWorst case: around $90\n\nBest case: around $110\n\nCurrent price: $100\n\nThat is the collar in one sentence.\n\nKey Terms To Know\n\nPut option\n\nInsurance against downside.\n\nCall option\n\nUpside participation that you sell to collect premium.\n\nStrike price\n\nThe price where the option becomes useful or binding.\n\nExpiration date\n\nThe date the collar ends.\n\nPremium\n\nThe cost of buying or selling the options.\n\nAssignment\n\nThe risk that your short call forces you to sell your shares.\n\nZero-cost collar\n\nA collar where the call premium roughly pays for the put premium.\n\nProtective collar\n\nAnother common name for the strategy.\n\nHow To Think About Strike Selection\n\nThis is where the strategy becomes practical.\n\nTighter collar\n\nExample: Buy $95 put, sell $105 call on a $100 stock.\n\nMore protection.\n\nLess upside.\n\nBetter for caution.\n\nWider collar\n\nExample: Buy $85 put, sell $120 call on a $100 stock.\n\nLess protection.\n\nMore upside.\n\nBetter if you still want room for the stock to work.\n\nNear-term collar\n\nExpires soon.\n\nGood around events.\n\nNeeds more active management.\n\nLonger-term collar\n\nLasts longer.\n\nBetter for portfolio protection.\n\nUsually costs more or requires giving up more upside.\n\nWhat Can Go Wrong\n\n1. You cap a big winner\n\nThe stock may surge above your call strike, and you miss further upside.\n\nThat is not a failure.\n\nThat is the cost of protection.\n\n2. You still lose money\n\nThe collar limits losses, but it usually does not eliminate them.\n\nIf the stock is $100 and your put is $90, you still have about $10 of downside exposure.\n\n3. Early assignment can happen\n\nIf the short call goes deep in the money, especially near dividends, you may be assigned and forced to sell your shares.\n\n4. The expiration date matters\n\nOnce the options expire, the protection is gone unless you roll or rebuild the collar.\n\n5. Liquidity matters\n\nWide bid-ask spreads can make collars expensive to enter and exit.\n\nWhen A Collar Is Most Useful\n\nA collar is best when your mindset is:\n\n&#8220;I still like this position, but I do not want one bad move to do major damage.&#8221;\n\nCommon uses:\n\nProtecting a large unrealized gain.\n\nManaging risk into earnings.\n\nReducing exposure without selling.\n\nCreating a disciplined exit range.\n\nStaying invested during uncertain markets.\n\nProtecting concentrated positions.\n\nCollar Versus Other Strategies\n\nCollar vs selling the stock\n\nSelling removes risk and upside.\n\nA collar keeps you invested within a defined range.\n\nCollar vs buying a put only\n\nBuying a put keeps unlimited upside but costs more.\n\nA collar lowers the cost by selling upside.\n\nCollar vs covered call\n\nA covered call generates income but does not protect downside.\n\nA collar adds the protective put.\n\nCollar vs stop loss\n\nA stop loss can fail during gaps.\n\nA put provides contractual protection through expiration.\n\nPractical Action Plan\n\nBefore using a collar, answer these five questions:\n\n\n\n\n\nWhat stock or ETF am I protecting?\n\n\n\nHow much downside am I willing to tolerate?\n\n\n\nHow much upside am I willing to give up?\n\n\n\nWhat expiration date matches my risk window?\n\n\n\nAm I okay selling the stock if it rises above the call strike?\n\nA simple beginner framework:\n\nIf the stock is at $100:\n\nBuy a put 5% to 10% below the current price.\n\nSell a call 5% to 15% above the current price.\n\nUse an expiration that matches the event or holding period.\n\nCheck the net cost.\n\nKnow your max downside and capped upside before entering.\n\nBottom Line\n\nA collar is a practical risk-management strategy for investors who want to stay in a position but define their downside.\n\nThe key trade-off is simple:\n\nYou buy protection below.\n\nYou sell upside above.\n\nYou turn an open-ended stock position into a controlled range.\n\nFor active investors, the collar is not about being bearish. It is about staying involved while refusing to leave risk unmanaged.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Every day I try to learn something new. &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Every single day&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;In this AI revolutionary era, you now have an amazing resource to help you. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So long as you actually know how to effectively use and prompt it to. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For example, I recently learned of the following &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;80/20 prompt&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; which is derived from the 80/20 rule which says 80% of results come from only 20% of the causes. As AI prompt engineers and users have also discovered, it can also be applied to learning new skills.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Here&#8217;s the prompt:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I want to learn [TOPIC]. I don&#8217;t need to become an expert&#8212;I just want a solid working understanding. Identify the most important 20% of concepts, terms, or ideas that will give me about 80% of what I need to know. Teach me those first, in plain language.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Give it a try on something of interest you don&#8217;t know about active investing. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For example, lets try this one&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I want to learn about a &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;collar option strategy&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;. I don&#8217;t need to become an expert&#8212;I just want a solid working understanding. Identify the most important 20% of concepts, terms, or ideas that will give me about 80% of what I need to know. Teach me those first, in plain language.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;I selected this one, as I know quite a few subscribers are using these to manage the risks present in this market, especially on positions which have run up quite a lot in such a short period of time this year. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Here&#8217;s the reply when I asked&#8230;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;~~~&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar option strategy is a way to protect a stock or ETF position from a large decline while giving up some upside in return.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;In plain English:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You own the stock.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You buy a put option for downside protection.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You sell a call option to help pay for that protection.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The result is a defined risk, defined reward position.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You are saying:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;I want to stay invested, but I want protection if the stock falls. In exchange, I am willing to cap some of my upside.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the core idea.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The Most Important 20% To Understand&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1. A Collar Has Three Parts&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A basic collar includes:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;orderedList&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:1,&quot;type&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Long stock You already own the shares.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Long put You buy protection below the market.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Short call You sell away upside above the market to help pay for the put.&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Example:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Stock price: $100&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Buy the $90 put&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Sell the $110 call&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This creates a range:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Below $90, the put protects you.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Between $90 and $110, you mostly move with the stock.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Above $110, your upside is capped.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2. The Put Is Your Insurance&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The put gives you the right to sell the stock at a specific price.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Example:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You own a stock at $100.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You buy the $90 put.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If the stock falls to $75, the put gives you protection because you can still sell at $90.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That does not mean you avoid all losses.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It means you define the worst-case zone.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Your approximate downside is:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Stock price minus put strike, plus or minus option costs.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If you own stock at $100 and buy the $90 put, your downside is roughly $10 per share before considering premiums.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3. The Call Pays For Some Or All Of The Protection&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Buying puts costs money.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;To reduce that cost, you sell a call option above the current stock price.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Example:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You sell the $110 call.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That means someone else has the right to buy your stock from you at $110.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If the stock rallies above $110, you may have to sell your shares at $110.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the trade-off.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You get protection below, but you give up upside above.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4. A Collar Creates A Floor And A Ceiling&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Think of a collar like putting guardrails around your position.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Using the same example:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Stock: $100&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Put: $90&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Call: $110&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Your rough range is:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Downside floor: $90&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Upside ceiling: $110&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You have not eliminated risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You have reshaped it.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Instead of unlimited downside and unlimited upside, you now have limited downside and limited upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;5. The Main Trade-Off Is Protection Versus Opportunity&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is the most important concept.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar is not &#8220;free money.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It is a risk-management trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You are buying peace of mind and selling upside potential.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar makes sense when:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You have a big gain and want to protect it.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You want to stay invested but reduce downside risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You are nervous about an event like earnings, Fed meeting, election, CPI, or geopolitical risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You do not want to sell the stock for tax, timing, or conviction reasons.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar makes less sense when:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You strongly believe the stock is about to surge.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You do not want your upside capped.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The stock is very volatile and option pricing is unattractive.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You are using it without understanding assignment risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Simple Example&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You own 100 shares of XYZ at $100.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You create a collar:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Buy 1 $90 put for $3&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Sell 1 $110 call for $3&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Net option cost: $0&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is called a zero-cost collar.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Your outcome at expiration:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If XYZ falls to $75 Your put protects you near $90.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If XYZ stays near $100 Your stock is roughly unchanged, and the options may expire worthless.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If XYZ rises to $125 Your upside is capped near $110 because the short call is in the money.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;So your position becomes roughly:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Worst case: around $90&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best case: around $110&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Current price: $100&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the collar in one sentence.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Key Terms To Know&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Put option&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Insurance against downside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Call option&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Upside participation that you sell to collect premium.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Strike price&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The price where the option becomes useful or binding.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Expiration date&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The date the collar ends.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Premium&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The cost of buying or selling the options.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Assignment&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The risk that your short call forces you to sell your shares.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Zero-cost collar&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar where the call premium roughly pays for the put premium.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Protective collar&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Another common name for the strategy.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;How To Think About Strike Selection&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is where the strategy becomes practical.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Tighter collar&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Example: Buy $95 put, sell $105 call on a $100 stock.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;More protection.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Less upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Better for caution.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Wider collar&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Example: Buy $85 put, sell $120 call on a $100 stock.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Less protection.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;More upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Better if you still want room for the stock to work.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Near-term collar&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Expires soon.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Good around events.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Needs more active management.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Longer-term collar&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Lasts longer.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Better for portfolio protection.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Usually costs more or requires giving up more upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What Can Go Wrong&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;1. You cap a big winner&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The stock may surge above your call strike, and you miss further upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is not a failure.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is the cost of protection.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2. You still lose money&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The collar limits losses, but it usually does not eliminate them.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If the stock is $100 and your put is $90, you still have about $10 of downside exposure.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3. Early assignment can happen&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If the short call goes deep in the money, especially near dividends, you may be assigned and forced to sell your shares.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;4. The expiration date matters&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Once the options expire, the protection is gone unless you roll or rebuild the collar.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;5. Liquidity matters&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Wide bid-ask spreads can make collars expensive to enter and exit.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;When A Collar Is Most Useful&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar is best when your mindset is:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;I still like this position, but I do not want one bad move to do major damage.&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Common uses:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Protecting a large unrealized gain.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Managing risk into earnings.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Reducing exposure without selling.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Creating a disciplined exit range.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Staying invested during uncertain markets.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Protecting concentrated positions.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Collar Versus Other Strategies&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Collar vs selling the stock&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Selling removes risk and upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar keeps you invested within a defined range.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Collar vs buying a put only&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Buying a put keeps unlimited upside but costs more.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar lowers the cost by selling upside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Collar vs covered call&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A covered call generates income but does not protect downside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar adds the protective put.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Collar vs stop loss&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A stop loss can fail during gaps.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A put provides contractual protection through expiration.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Practical Action Plan&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Before using a collar, answer these five questions:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;orderedList&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:1,&quot;type&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What stock or ETF am I protecting?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;How much downside am I willing to tolerate?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;How much upside am I willing to give up?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What expiration date matches my risk window?&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Am I okay selling the stock if it rises above the call strike?&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A simple beginner framework:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If the stock is at $100:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Buy a put 5% to 10% below the current price.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Sell a call 5% to 15% above the current price.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Use an expiration that matches the event or holding period.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Check the net cost.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Know your max downside and capped upside before entering.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bottom Line&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A collar is a practical risk-management strategy for investors who want to stay in a position but define their downside.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The key trade-off is simple:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You buy protection below.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You sell upside above.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You turn an open-ended stock position into a controlled range.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For active investors, the collar is not about being bearish. It is about staying involved while refusing to leave risk unmanaged.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:5,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;f6998715-7aa4-4605-b1f1-e0564374a49a&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eeb9d74e-0742-4a52-b275-1f5c8cb5a869_1083x484.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1083,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:484,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259661538,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259661538,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T15:55:00.143Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T20:19:48.346Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;A reminder for those who&#8217;ve racked up huge gains since the end of March&#8230;\n\nThe same strategies, skills and your keen management which enabled you to achieve these significant returns are the same ones that will most likely hinder you from keeping them.\n\nA challenging thing for most to understand. \n\nThat is, until the market proves it to you.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A reminder for those who&#8217;ve racked up huge gains since the end of March&#8230;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The same strategies, skills and your keen management which enabled you to achieve these significant returns are the same ones that &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;will most likely hinder you from keeping them&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A challenging thing for most to understand. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is, until the market proves it to you.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:1,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:4,&quot;children_count&quot;:1,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259659495,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259659495,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T15:18:00.218Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;The most important question is not &#8220;How much risk can I afford to take?&#8221;\n\nThe better question is: &#8220;How much risk do I still need to take?&#8221;\n\nThat distinction matters.\n\nThe following is a strong reminder that investing is not only about maximizing returns. It is about matching risk to purpose. \n\nEarly in the journey, risk-taking may be necessary to build wealth. \n\nLater in the journey, the bigger mistake may be refusing to de-risk after the money has already done its job.\n\nhttps://substack.com/home/post/p-197857365?source=queue&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The most important question is not &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;How much risk can I afford to take?&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The better question is: &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;How much risk do I still need to take?&#8221;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That distinction matters.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The following is a strong reminder that investing is not only about maximizing returns. It is about matching risk to purpose. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Early in the journey, risk-taking may be necessary to build wealth. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Later in the journey, the &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;bigger mistake may be refusing to de-risk after the money has already done its job.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://substack.com/home/post/p-197857365?source=queue&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://substack.com/home/post/p-197857365?source=queue&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;7d9ddd29-3d48-4b7f-9ec0-4f94025b48d4&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;post&quot;,&quot;publication&quot;:{&quot;apple_pay_disabled&quot;:false,&quot;apex_domain&quot;:null,&quot;author_id&quot;:532848,&quot;byline_images_enabled&quot;:true,&quot;bylines_enabled&quot;:true,&quot;chartable_token&quot;:null,&quot;community_enabled&quot;:true,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;Nicholas Maggiulli&quot;,&quot;cover_photo_url&quot;:null,&quot;created_at&quot;:&quot;2025-05-04T11:33:24.081Z&quot;,&quot;custom_domain_optional&quot;:false,&quot;custom_domain&quot;:null,&quot;default_comment_sort&quot;:&quot;best_first&quot;,&quot;default_coupon&quot;:null,&quot;default_group_coupon&quot;:null,&quot;default_show_guest_bios&quot;:true,&quot;email_banner_url&quot;:null,&quot;email_from_name&quot;:&quot;Nick Maggiulli from Of Dollars And Data&quot;,&quot;email_from&quot;:null,&quot;embed_tracking_disabled&quot;:false,&quot;explicit&quot;:false,&quot;expose_paywall_content_to_search_engines&quot;:true,&quot;fb_pixel_id&quot;:null,&quot;fb_site_verification_token&quot;:null,&quot;flagged_as_spam&quot;:false,&quot;founding_subscription_benefits&quot;:null,&quot;free_subscription_benefits&quot;:null,&quot;ga_pixel_id&quot;:null,&quot;google_site_verification_token&quot;:null,&quot;google_tag_manager_token&quot;:null,&quot;hero_image&quot;:null,&quot;hero_text&quot;:&quot;Author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. 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More Money Means You Should Take Less Risk&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bacecf53-f28d-4bf4-b0b8-079f5d5a89a3_640x427.jpeg&quot;,&quot;cover_image_is_square&quot;:false,&quot;cover_image_is_explicit&quot;:false,&quot;podcast_url&quot;:null,&quot;videoUpload&quot;:null,&quot;podcastFields&quot;:null,&quot;podcast_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;podcast_preview_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;podcastUpload&quot;:null,&quot;podcastPreviewUpload&quot;:null,&quot;voiceover_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;voiceoverUpload&quot;:null,&quot;has_voiceover&quot;:false,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Why More Money Means You Should Take Less Risk&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:null,&quot;body_html&quot;:null,&quot;truncated_body_text&quot;:&quot;There&#8217;s a common belief that as your wealth increases, your capacity to take risk increases as well. After all, when you have more you can afford to lose more, right?&quot;,&quot;wordcount&quot;:1014,&quot;post_preview_limit&quot;:null,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;,&quot;postTags&quot;:[],&quot;teaser_post_eligible&quot;:true,&quot;postCountryBlocks&quot;:[],&quot;headlineTest&quot;:null,&quot;coverImagePalette&quot;:{&quot;Vibrant&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[210,184,25],&quot;population&quot;:130},&quot;DarkVibrant&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[62,50,10],&quot;population&quot;:53},&quot;LightVibrant&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[200,134,113],&quot;population&quot;:99},&quot;Muted&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[155,132,116],&quot;population&quot;:342},&quot;DarkMuted&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[43,48,92],&quot;population&quot;:168},&quot;LightMuted&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[174,187,204],&quot;population&quot;:262}},&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:532848,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Nick Maggiulli&quot;,&quot;handle&quot;:&quot;dollarsanddata&quot;,&quot;previous_name&quot;:&quot;Nicholas Maggiulli&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3c92600d-a4b2-4c2f-9f6b-3340a3c93c5a_2143x2143.jpeg&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. Helping people build wealth since 2017.&quot;,&quot;profile_set_up_at&quot;:&quot;2022-08-23T16:39:15.080Z&quot;,&quot;reader_installed_at&quot;:&quot;2025-02-24T02:46:53.603Z&quot;,&quot;publicationUsers&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:5014883,&quot;user_id&quot;:532848,&quot;publication_id&quot;:4916541,&quot;role&quot;:&quot;admin&quot;,&quot;public&quot;:true,&quot;is_primary&quot;:true,&quot;publication&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:4916541,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Nick Maggiulli&quot;,&quot;subdomain&quot;:&quot;dollarsanddata&quot;,&quot;custom_domain&quot;:null,&quot;custom_domain_optional&quot;:false,&quot;hero_text&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;logo_url&quot;:null,&quot;author_id&quot;:532848,&quot;primary_user_id&quot;:532848,&quot;theme_var_background_pop&quot;:&quot;#FF6719&quot;,&quot;created_at&quot;:&quot;2025-05-04T11:33:24.081Z&quot;,&quot;email_from_name&quot;:&quot;Nick Maggiulli from Of Dollars And Data&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;Nicholas 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Maggiulli&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3c92600d-a4b2-4c2f-9f6b-3340a3c93c5a_2143x2143.jpeg&quot;}],&quot;coverImagePalette&quot;:{&quot;Vibrant&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[210,184,25],&quot;population&quot;:130},&quot;DarkVibrant&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[62,50,10],&quot;population&quot;:53},&quot;LightVibrant&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[200,134,113],&quot;population&quot;:99},&quot;Muted&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[155,132,116],&quot;population&quot;:342},&quot;DarkMuted&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[43,48,92],&quot;population&quot;:168},&quot;LightMuted&quot;:{&quot;rgb&quot;:[174,187,204],&quot;population&quot;:262}},&quot;publication_id&quot;:4916541,&quot;publisher_image_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KRFc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c92600d-a4b2-4c2f-9f6b-3340a3c93c5a_2143x2143.jpeg&quot;,&quot;publisher_name&quot;:&quot;Nick Maggiulli&quot;,&quot;is_personal_mode&quot;:false,&quot;like_count&quot;:25,&quot;comment_count&quot;:10,&quot;reaction&quot;:false,&quot;tracking_parameters&quot;:{&quot;is_saved&quot;:false,&quot;is_seen&quot;:true,&quot;post_id&quot;:197857365,&quot;post_type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;publication_id&quot;:4916541,&quot;tabId&quot;:&quot;home&quot;,&quot;tabType&quot;:&quot;base&quot;,&quot;max_read_progress&quot;:0,&quot;max_audio_progress&quot;:0,&quot;max_video_progress&quot;:0,&quot;last_seen_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-15T18:46:51.154Z&quot;,&quot;impression_id&quot;:&quot;4464735c-2020-40c8-b01b-f36e35597547&quot;}},&quot;is_saved&quot;:false,&quot;saved_at&quot;:null,&quot;is_viewed&quot;:true,&quot;read_progress&quot;:0,&quot;max_read_progress&quot;:0,&quot;audio_progress&quot;:0,&quot;max_audio_progress&quot;:0,&quot;video_progress&quot;:0,&quot;max_video_progress&quot;:0,&quot;restacked&quot;:false},&quot;postSelection&quot;:null,&quot;postSelectionTheme&quot;:null,&quot;postImageSelection&quot;:null,&quot;clipInfo&quot;:null,&quot;mediaClip&quot;:null}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:259770706,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:259770706,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16T01:16:34.186Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\n\&quot;Just remember, none of this is easy. Anybody who thinks it's easy is stupid.\&quot; - Charlie Munger\n\nA good way to end the week. \n\nMy friends, I hope I&#8217;ve been helpful. And, if I haven&#8217;t, I will continue to try.\n\nHave a wonderful weekend! - C.E. Kirk&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;\&quot;Just remember, none of this is easy. Anybody who thinks it's easy is stupid.\&quot; - Charlie Munger&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A good way to end the week. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;My friends, I hope I&#8217;ve been helpful. And, if I haven&#8217;t, I will continue to try.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Have a wonderful weekend! - C.E. Kirk&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:17,&quot;children_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/notes&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;READ MORE NOTES&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes"><span>READ MORE NOTES</span></a></p><div><hr></div><blockquote><p><em>&#8220;This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it.&#8221; - Ralph Waldo Emerson</em></p></blockquote><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/subscribe&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;SUPPORT MY WORK&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://kirksopportunities.com/subscribe"><span>SUPPORT MY WORK</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Few Notes To Share]]></title><description><![CDATA[How to access my notebook and an idea for improvement, too]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/a-few-notes-to-share</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/a-few-notes-to-share</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2026 01:40:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UY4N!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa199728e-5732-40ba-904c-e19992130f6b_2820x1504.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UY4N!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa199728e-5732-40ba-904c-e19992130f6b_2820x1504.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UY4N!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa199728e-5732-40ba-904c-e19992130f6b_2820x1504.png 424w, 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class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Hello my friend,</p><p>I&#8217;m reaching out today because I&#8217;m considering a small addition that could make your <strong><a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/">Kirk&#8217;s Opportunities</a></strong> subscription more useful during the week.</p><p>Several friends asked me today where they can find the <strong><a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notebook</a> </strong>or <strong><a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notes</a></strong> I often refer to in my weekend newsletters.</p><p><em>That tells me there may still be some confusion around this part of the service.</em></p><p>I&#8217;ve also had several subscribers ask if I could send my shorter market notes by email more consistently, rather than only occasionally.</p><p>So I&#8217;m considering adding a separate daily notes email for subscribers.</p><p>The idea would be simple:</p><p>&#8226; Gather up some of the most interesting, helpful, well-liked notes each day<br>&#8226; Focused on what I&#8217;m watching, thinking, and doing <br>&#8226; Then send them to you by email for easier access<br>&#8226; Included as part of your current subscription (you can opt out, too)</p><p>This would simply be an added benefit for subscribers who want more frequent market updates during the week.</p><p>Please let me know what you think. </p><p><em>Would this be useful to you?</em></p><p>As always, I&#8217;m working to make Kirk&#8217;s Opportunities more helpful, more actionable, and even more valuable for you. </p><p>I have more improvements planned, too. ;) </p><p>Since I&#8217;m devoting so much time and effort to my <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">notebook</a>, this seems like the most natural place to start.  </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>A few of the many notes you may have missed&#8230;</strong></p><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257550850,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257550850,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-12T00:46:21.739Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;What my AI agent in training thinks I/we need to know this evening&#8230;\n\nBottom Line\n\nThe market remains in a powerful AI-led uptrend, but the rally is becoming increasingly dependent on crowded leadership while oil, geopolitics, inflation, and positioning risks continue building beneath the surface.\n\nSummary\n\nThe S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continued their record run, with both trying to extend historic winning streaks to 7 straight weeks.\n\nStocks finished modestly higher as strength in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and energy helped offset renewed concerns tied to oil, Iran, and inflation risk.\n\nThe dominant message from the market is clear: AI enthusiasm is still overpowering most macro concerns. Investors are not treating the Iran war, higher oil prices, or this week&#8217;s CPI data as reasons to reduce risk. Instead, the bigger short-term fear appears to be missing further upside in the AI momentum trade.\n\nLeadership is concentrated in semiconductors, hyperscaler AI, infrastructure, mega-cap tech, networking, cybersecurity, and memory. If those groups weaken, downside could accelerate because positioning and passive flows are crowded in this trade.\n\nWhat You Need To Know\n\nIndexes\n\n&#8226; The S&amp;P 500 &amp; Nasdaq close at new all-time highs\n\n&#8226; The S&amp;P 500 successfully captured its Fibonacci extension target at 7425\n\n&#8226; Momentum remains concentrated in semis, hyperscaler AI, and infrastructure plays.\n\n&#8226; Magnificent 7 (MAGS) diverts and closes lower.\n\nAI and Semiconductor Leadership\n\n&#8226; AI remains the dominant global equity theme.\n\n&#8226; Chip stocks continued its vertical ascent.\n\n&#8226; Micron gained more than 6% and continues to stand out as a symbol of the AI memory trade.\n\n&#8226; Intel rose roughly 3.6%, adding to broader chip strength.\n\n&#8226; The PHLX Semiconductor Index advanced, reinforcing investor appetite for AI infrastructure exposure.\n\n&#8226; Wall Street strategists continue raising market targets based on AI spending acceleration.\n\n&#8226; Ed Yardini raises S&amp;P 500 forecast to 8250 this year topping views at Oppenheimer (8,100), Deutsche Bank (8,000), RBC (7,900), Morgan Stanley (7,800), Citigroup (7,700), JPMorgan (7,600), and Goldman Sachs (7,600).\n\n&#8226; &#8226; The key market belief is that AI capex strength can offset any and all macro drags.\n\nEnergy and Geopolitics\n\n&#8226; Energy outperformed as oil rose on U.S.&#8211;Iran tensions, Hormuz disruption concerns, and supply risk.\n\n&#8226; Occidental Petroleum, Diamondback Energy, and Exxon Mobil benefited from the move higher in crude.\n\n&#8226; U.S.&#8211;Iran tensions remain a major risk near the Strait of Hormuz.\n\n&#8226; Brent crude moving back above $100 keeps inflation and supply shock concerns alive.\n\n&#8226; Oil volatility remains the biggest macro risk to the equity rally.\n\nMacro and Fed\n\n&#8226; There were no major U.S. economic releases during the session, leaving geopolitics, oil, sector rotation, and momentum as the key drivers.\n\n&#8226; Tuesday&#8217;s April CPI report is the next major catalyst.\n\n&#8226; A hotter CPI print could revive inflation concerns and push back expectations for Fed rate cuts.\n\n&#8226; A cooler CPI report would likely support the market&#8217;s current view that inflation doesn&#8217;t matter (i.e., &#8220;its only one-off&#8221;, nothing to worry about, oil will drop like a rock once Iran caves, etc.,)\n\n&#8226; Higher-for-longer rates are no longer derailing equities, but they are limiting breadth.\n\n&#8226; Large-cap AI leaders are absorbing liquidity while smaller caps, cyclicals, and rate-sensitive groups lag.\n\nEarnings and Corporate Trends\n\n&#8226; Earnings season remains stronger than expected overall.\n\n&#8226; AI-linked companies continue receiving premium market reactions.\n\n&#8226; Consumer and industrial names are showing more mixed guidance trends.\n\n&#8226; The market is rewarding AI monetization, infrastructure exposure, pricing power, and earnings upgrades.\n\n&#8226; The market is punishing weak margins, slowing demand, and expensive growth without execution.\n\nCrypto\n\n&#8226; Bitcoin is trading at a new recovery high today.\n\n&#8226; Crypto continues trading as a liquidity asset, AI/risk sentiment proxy, and macro beta trade.\n\n&#8226; Stablecoin regulation remains an important policy theme.\n\n&#8226; The institutional adoption narrative remains intact despite volatility.\n\nVolatility and Positioning\n\n&#8226; VIX jumps higher amid geopolitical risk.\n\n&#8226; Positioning is extremely crowded in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and mega-caps growth.\n\n&#8226; This is the market&#8217;s biggest vulnerability. If leadership weakens, selling pressure could accelerate because so much capital is concentrated in the same winners.\n\nLeaders\n\n&#8226; Semiconductors\n\n&#8226; AI infrastructure\n\n&#8226; Mega-cap tech\n\n&#8226; Cybersecurity\n\n&#8226; Networking and optical\n\n&#8226; Memory\n\nLaggards\n\n&#8226; Small caps\n\n&#8226; Traditional defensives\n\n&#8226; Consumer cyclicals\n\n&#8226; Energy equities despite higher oil\n\nStructural Themes\n\n&#8226; AI infrastructure spending continues accelerating globally.\n\n&#8226; Power, cooling, networking, and memory demand remain major investment themes.\n\n&#8226; Markets are increasingly pricing a multi-year AI buildout cycle.\n\n&#8226; At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation, energy security, and supply-chain resiliency are becoming parallel investment themes.\n\nNext Catalysts\n\n&#8226; U.S. CPI and inflation data\n\n&#8226; Additional Fed commentary\n\n&#8226; Iran&#8217;s response to the U.S. proposal\n\n&#8226; Oil stability above or below $100\n\n&#8226; Continued AI earnings revisions\n\n&#8226; Oil inventory data\n\n&#8226; Additional earnings reports\n\n3 Scenarios\n\nBull Case: 45%\n\n&#8226; Inflation remains stable.\n\n&#8226; Oil stays contained.\n\n&#8226; AI momentum resumes.\n\n&#8226; S&amp;P 500 breaks above 7,400 and pushes toward 7,450.\n\nBase Case: 40%\n\n&#8226; Market consolidates sideways.\n\n&#8226; S&amp;P 500 trades between 7,280 and 7,400.\n\n&#8226; AI leadership remains intact, but upside momentum cools.\n\n&#8226; Rotation remains narrow and selective.\n\nBear Case: 15%\n\n&#8226; Hormuz escalation drives another oil spike.\n\n&#8226; CPI comes in hotter than expected.\n\n&#8226; Crowded AI positioning starts to unwind.\n\n&#8226; S&amp;P 500 loses 7,280 and risks a breakdown toward 7,200.\n\nConclusion\n\nThe market is still acting like AI spending is unstoppable, earnings are resilient, and macro shocks are temporary. That remains enough to keep equities near highs and maintain the upside bias.\n\nBut this is not a low-risk setup. Leadership is narrow, positioning is crowded, oil is above the market&#8217;s comfort zone, and CPI now becomes the next test. \n\nAs long as semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and mega-cap growth continue leading, the trend can keep pressing higher. If that leadership cracks, the same concentration that has powered the rally could quickly become the source of downside pressure.\n\nAnd, finally, a blast from the past (note the date of the cartoon below):&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What my &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;AI agent in training&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; thinks I/we need to know this evening&#8230;&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bottom Line&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The market remains in a powerful AI-led uptrend, but the rally is becoming increasingly dependent on crowded leadership while oil, geopolitics, inflation, and positioning risks continue building beneath the surface.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Summary&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continued their record run, with both trying to extend historic winning streaks to 7 straight weeks.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Stocks finished modestly higher as strength in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and energy helped offset renewed concerns tied to oil, Iran, and inflation risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The dominant message from the market is clear: AI enthusiasm is still overpowering most macro concerns. Investors are not treating the Iran war, higher oil prices, or this week&#8217;s CPI data as reasons to reduce risk. Instead, the bigger short-term fear appears to be missing further upside in the AI momentum trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Leadership is concentrated in semiconductors, hyperscaler AI, infrastructure, mega-cap tech, networking, cybersecurity, and memory. If those groups weaken, downside could accelerate because positioning and passive flows are crowded in this trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;What You Need To Know&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Indexes&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The S&amp;P 500 &amp; Nasdaq close at new all-time highs&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The S&amp;P 500 successfully captured its &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Fibonacci extension target &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;at 7425&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Momentum remains concentrated in semis, hyperscaler AI, and infrastructure plays.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Magnificent 7 (MAGS) diverts and closes lower.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;AI and Semiconductor Leadership&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI remains the dominant global equity theme.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Chip stocks continued its vertical ascent.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Micron gained more than 6% and continues to stand out as a symbol of the AI memory trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Intel rose roughly 3.6%, adding to broader chip strength.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The PHLX Semiconductor Index advanced, reinforcing investor appetite for AI infrastructure exposure.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Wall Street strategists continue raising market targets based on AI spending acceleration.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Ed Yardini raises S&amp;P 500 forecast to 8250 this year topping views at Oppenheimer (8,100), Deutsche Bank (8,000), RBC (7,900), Morgan Stanley (7,800), Citigroup (7,700), JPMorgan (7,600), and Goldman Sachs (7,600).&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &#8226; The key market belief is that AI capex strength can offset any and all macro drags.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Energy and Geopolitics&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Energy outperformed as oil rose on U.S.&#8211;Iran tensions, Hormuz disruption concerns, and supply risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Occidental Petroleum, Diamondback Energy, and Exxon Mobil benefited from the move higher in crude.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; U.S.&#8211;Iran tensions remain a major risk near the Strait of Hormuz.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Brent crude moving back above $100 keeps inflation and supply shock concerns alive.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Oil volatility remains the biggest macro risk to the equity rally.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Macro and Fed&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; There were no major U.S. economic releases during the session, leaving geopolitics, oil, sector rotation, and momentum as the key drivers.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Tuesday&#8217;s April CPI report is the next major catalyst.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; A hotter CPI print could revive inflation concerns and push back expectations for Fed rate cuts.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; A cooler CPI report would likely support the market&#8217;s current view that inflation doesn&#8217;t matter (i.e., &#8220;its only one-off&#8221;, nothing to worry about, oil will drop like a rock once Iran caves, etc.,)&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Higher-for-longer rates are no longer derailing equities, but they are limiting breadth.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Large-cap AI leaders are absorbing liquidity while smaller caps, cyclicals, and rate-sensitive groups lag.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Earnings and Corporate Trends&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Earnings season remains stronger than expected overall.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI-linked companies continue receiving premium market reactions.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Consumer and industrial names are showing more mixed guidance trends.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The market is rewarding AI monetization, infrastructure exposure, pricing power, and earnings upgrades.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The market is punishing weak margins, slowing demand, and expensive growth without execution.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Crypto&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Bitcoin is trading at a new recovery high today.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Crypto continues trading as a liquidity asset, AI/risk sentiment proxy, and macro beta trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Stablecoin regulation remains an important policy theme.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The institutional adoption narrative remains intact despite volatility.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Volatility and Positioning&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; VIX jumps higher amid geopolitical risk.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Positioning is extremely crowded in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and mega-caps growth.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; This is the market&#8217;s biggest vulnerability. If leadership weakens, selling pressure could accelerate because so much capital is concentrated in the same winners.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Leaders&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Semiconductors&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI infrastructure&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Mega-cap tech&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Cybersecurity&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Networking and optical&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Memory&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Laggards&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Small caps&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Traditional defensives&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Consumer cyclicals&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Energy equities despite higher oil&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Structural Themes&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI infrastructure spending continues accelerating globally.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Power, cooling, networking, and memory demand remain major investment themes.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Markets are increasingly pricing a multi-year AI buildout cycle.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation, energy security, and supply-chain resiliency are becoming parallel investment themes.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Next Catalysts&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; U.S. CPI and inflation data&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Additional Fed commentary&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Iran&#8217;s response to the U.S. proposal&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Oil stability above or below $100&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Continued AI earnings revisions&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Oil inventory data&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Additional earnings reports&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;3 Scenarios&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bull Case: 45%&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Inflation remains stable.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Oil stays contained.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI momentum resumes.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; S&amp;P 500 breaks above 7,400 and pushes toward 7,450.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Base Case: 40%&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Market consolidates sideways.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; S&amp;P 500 trades between 7,280 and 7,400.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; AI leadership remains intact, but upside momentum cools.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Rotation remains narrow and selective.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bear Case: 15%&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Hormuz escalation drives another oil spike.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; CPI comes in hotter than expected.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Crowded AI positioning starts to unwind.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; S&amp;P 500 loses 7,280 and risks a breakdown toward 7,200.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Conclusion&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The market is still acting like AI spending is unstoppable, earnings are resilient, and macro shocks are temporary. That remains enough to keep equities near highs and maintain the upside bias.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;But this is not a low-risk setup. Leadership is narrow, positioning is crowded, oil is above the market&#8217;s comfort zone, and CPI now becomes the next test. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;As long as semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and mega-cap growth continue leading, the trend can keep pressing higher. If that leadership cracks, the same concentration that has powered the rally could quickly become the source of downside pressure.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;And, finally, a blast from the past (&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;note the date of the cartoon below&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;):&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;f31e9a9e-60db-4467-a7d5-799a9408200c&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/45bab75d-dd00-446a-b7ca-2ecf70c1aa0f_948x761.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:948,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:761,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257385406,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257385406,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T21:22:00.147Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Don't follow the economy. \n\nFollow the price action. \n\nEspecially in reaction to earnings. \n\nThe latest via Factset:  https://kirkopps.com/r/BHCAqg26\n\nBottom Line:  Q1 earnings season remains much stronger than expected, but the market is becoming more selective and is punishing misses much harder than usual.\n\nSummary\n\nWith 89% of S&amp;P 500 companies reporting Q1 results, earnings season has been impressive. EPS beats, revenue beats, earnings growth, revenue growth, and margins are all running above normal levels.\n\nThe main issue is valuation. Earnings are improving, but price has risen even faster since the end of Q1, pushing the forward P/E back to 21.0. That means the market still has support from fundamentals, but expectations are no longer low.\n\nKey Points\n\n&#8226; 84% of S&amp;P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates, above the 5-year average of 78%.\n\n&#8226; 80% have beaten revenue estimates, also above the 5-year average of 70%.\n\n&#8226; Q1 blended earnings growth is now 27.7%, up sharply from the 13.1% expected at the end of March.\n\n&#8226; If that holds, it would be the strongest S&amp;P 500 earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.\n\n&#8226; Revenue growth is running at 11.3%, which would be the strongest since Q2 2022.\n\n&#8226; Net profit margin is 14.7%, above last quarter, above last year, and potentially the highest since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2009.\n\n&#8226; Information Technology remains the major earnings engine, with sector earnings growth of 50.7%.\n\n&#8226; NVIDIA and Micron are the biggest contributors to Tech earnings growth. Without them, Tech earnings growth would drop to 28.5%.\n\n&#8226; Communication Services earnings growth is 48.8%, but it is heavily dependent on Alphabet and Meta. Without those two, the sector would be down 4.6%.\n\n&#8226; Consumer Discretionary earnings growth is 39.7%, but Amazon is the key driver. Without Amazon, the sector would fall to 14.9%.\n\n&#8226; Health Care is the only sector reporting a year-over-year earnings decline.\n\nMost Important Market Takeaway\n\nThe market is rewarding beats only slightly more than average, but it is punishing misses much more than usual.\n\n&#8226; Positive EPS surprises are seeing an average price gain of 1.1%, only slightly above the 5-year average of 1.0%.\n\n&#8226; Negative EPS surprises are seeing an average price decline of 4.9%, far worse than the 5-year average decline of 2.9%.\n\nThat is a key message for active investors. The earnings bar may have been beaten broadly, but individual stock risk remains high when companies disappoint.\n\nForward Outlook\n\nThe earnings outlook remains constructive.\n\n&#8226; Q2 earnings growth is expected at 19.9%.\n\n&#8226; Q3 earnings growth is expected at 23.2%.\n\n&#8226; Q4 earnings growth is expected at 20.7%.\n\n&#8226; Full-year 2026 earnings growth is expected at 21.0%.\n\nGuidance is also better than normal. For Q2, 49% of companies issuing EPS guidance have guided negatively, below the 5-year average of 58% and the 10-year average of 60%.\n\nValuation Check\n\nThis is where the caution comes in.\n\n&#8226; The S&amp;P 500 forward 12-month P/E is 21.0.\n\n&#8226; That is above the 5-year average of 19.9.\n\n&#8226; It is also above the 10-year average of 18.9.\n\n&#8226; Since March 31st, the S&amp;P 500 price is up 12.4%, while forward EPS estimates are up 5.4%.\n\nThat means earnings are improving, but price has moved even faster. The market is supported by stronger fundamentals, but not cheap.\n\nBest Lines\n\n&#8226; Earnings are strong, but expectations are no longer easy.\n\n&#8226; The market is not treating all earnings beats equally.\n\n&#8226; Positive surprises are being rewarded modestly, while negative surprises are being punished aggressively.\n\n&#8226; The earnings recovery is real, but it is still heavily concentrated in Tech, AI, mega-cap platforms, and a few large contributors.\n\n&#8226; Better earnings can support higher prices, but valuation leaves less room for disappointment.\n\n&#8226; This remains a constructive earnings backdrop, but not a forgiving one.\n\nConclusion\n\nThis report supports the bullish earnings case for the S&amp;P 500. Growth is strong, margins are expanding, guidance is better than normal, and analysts continue to raise estimates.\n\nThe risk is not that earnings are weak. The risk is that prices have already moved a long way to reflect improving fundamentals. From here, the market likely needs continued earnings strength, better breadth, and clean guidance to justify elevated valuations.\n\nFor active investors, the message is clear: stay aligned with the trend, but be selective. In this environment, the market is rewarding quality and punishing disappointment quickly.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Don't follow the economy. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Follow the price action. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Especially in reaction to earnings. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The latest via Factset:  &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/BHCAqg26&quot;,&quot;target&quot;:&quot;_blank&quot;,&quot;rel&quot;:&quot;nofollow ugc noopener&quot;,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;note-link&quot;}}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;https://kirkopps.com/r/BHCAqg26&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bottom Line:  &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Q1 earnings season remains much stronger than expected, but the market is becoming more selective and is punishing misses much harder than usual.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Summary&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;With 89% of S&amp;P 500 companies reporting Q1 results, earnings season has been impressive. EPS beats, revenue beats, earnings growth, revenue growth, and margins are all running above normal levels.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The main issue is valuation. Earnings are improving, but price has risen even faster since the end of Q1, pushing the forward P/E back to 21.0. That means the market still has support from fundamentals, but expectations are no longer low.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Key Points&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 84% of S&amp;P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates, above the 5-year average of 78%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 80% have beaten revenue estimates, also above the 5-year average of 70%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Q1 blended earnings growth is now 27.7%, up sharply from the 13.1% expected at the end of March.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; If that holds, it would be the strongest S&amp;P 500 earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Revenue growth is running at 11.3%, which would be the strongest since Q2 2022.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Net profit margin is 14.7%, above last quarter, above last year, and potentially the highest since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2009.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Information Technology remains the major earnings engine, with sector earnings growth of 50.7%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; NVIDIA and Micron are the biggest contributors to Tech earnings growth. Without them, Tech earnings growth would drop to 28.5%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Communication Services earnings growth is 48.8%, but it is heavily dependent on Alphabet and Meta. Without those two, the sector would be down 4.6%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Consumer Discretionary earnings growth is 39.7%, but Amazon is the key driver. Without Amazon, the sector would fall to 14.9%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Health Care is the only sector reporting a year-over-year earnings decline.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Most Important Market Takeaway&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The market is rewarding beats only slightly more than average, but it is punishing misses much more than usual.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Positive EPS surprises are seeing an average price gain of 1.1%, only slightly above the 5-year average of 1.0%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Negative EPS surprises are seeing an average price decline of 4.9%, far worse than the 5-year average decline of 2.9%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is a key message for active investors. The earnings bar may have been beaten broadly, but individual stock risk remains high when companies disappoint.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Forward Outlook&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The earnings outlook remains constructive.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Q2 earnings growth is expected at 19.9%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Q3 earnings growth is expected at 23.2%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Q4 earnings growth is expected at 20.7%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Full-year 2026 earnings growth is expected at 21.0%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Guidance is also better than normal. For Q2, 49% of companies issuing EPS guidance have guided negatively, below the 5-year average of 58% and the 10-year average of 60%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Valuation Check&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This is where the caution comes in.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The S&amp;P 500 forward 12-month P/E is 21.0.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; That is above the 5-year average of 19.9.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; It is also above the 10-year average of 18.9.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Since March 31st, the S&amp;P 500 price is up 12.4%, while forward EPS estimates are up 5.4%.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That means earnings are improving, but price has moved even faster. The market is supported by stronger fundamentals, but not cheap.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Best Lines&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Earnings are strong, but expectations are no longer easy.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The market is not treating all earnings beats equally.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Positive surprises are being rewarded modestly, while negative surprises are being punished aggressively.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; The earnings recovery is real, but it is still heavily concentrated in Tech, AI, mega-cap platforms, and a few large contributors.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Better earnings can support higher prices, but valuation leaves less room for disappointment.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; This remains a constructive earnings backdrop, but not a forgiving one.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Conclusion&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;This report supports the bullish earnings case for the S&amp;P 500. Growth is strong, margins are expanding, guidance is better than normal, and analysts continue to raise estimates.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The risk is not that earnings are weak. The risk is that prices have already moved a long way to reflect improving fundamentals. From here, the market likely needs continued earnings strength, better breadth, and clean guidance to justify elevated valuations.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For active investors, the message is clear: stay aligned with the trend, but be selective. In this environment, the market is rewarding quality and punishing disappointment quickly.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;32958c21-e220-4517-898f-b39b1f033df7&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/33e80aa6-f491-4e83-af0a-7ea3e808afc8_1729x668.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1729,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:668,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257413429,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257413429,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T19:31:39.357Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T19:35:53.688Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Most likely nothing, but something I&#8217;m monitoring on the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s short-term 10 minute view given this 7425 Fibonacci target area (see prior notes):&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Most likely nothing, but something I&#8217;m monitoring on the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s short-term 10 minute view given this &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7425 &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Fibonacci target area (see prior notes):&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:2,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;fde0717d-2f4e-4c15-b2b0-7f2d074c53f1&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c8f40d0f-fdc0-4a91-a3c1-ae9393956b3d_1962x1120.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1962,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1120,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257379782,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257379782,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T18:25:41.751Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T18:29:16.965Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\nYou don&#8217;t need 50 indicators. Just watch:\n\n&#8226; leaders\n\n&#8226; reactions to earnings\n\n&#8226; pullbacks\n\nThe market tells you what to do&#8230; if you pay attention. \n\n- Laurentiu Chisca\n\nMy friends, these are your leaders helpfully organized by category (via Lin):&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;You don&#8217;t need 50 indicators. Just watch:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; leaders&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; reactions to earnings&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; pullbacks&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The market tells you what to do&#8230; if you pay attention. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;- Laurentiu Chisca&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;My friends, these are your leaders helpfully organized by category (via &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Lin&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;):&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:5,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;3f00626f-8a9c-4cb4-bf7e-b7345df41bc8&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9fd2e858-8ca5-4190-8fce-f95959fb36c0_1568x2353.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1568,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:2353,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257334785,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257334785,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T17:00:46.915Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T17:03:38.847Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Why do we pay attention to these extensions? \n\nShort-answer? They provide levels of interest to watch like we saw earlier this year from the prior year&#8217;s tariff tumble/correction.\n\nThat said, here&#8217;s more info for those who want to know more:\n\nFIBONACCI EXTENSIONS 101:\n\nActive investors watch Fibonacci extension levels because they offer a structured way to estimate where price may travel after breaking beyond a prior high or low.\n\nThey are not magic. \n\nThey work mainly because many traders, algorithms, and technical analysts watch the same levels, which can turn them into areas of potential reaction, profit-taking, resistance, or trend acceleration.\n\nWhy They Matter\n\n&#8226; They help define upside targets\n\nWhen price breaks above a prior swing high, Fibonacci extensions give traders possible target zones beyond the old high.\n\nCommon levels include:\n\n&#8226; 1.272 extension\n\n&#8226; 1.414 extension\n\n&#8226; 1.618 extension\n\n&#8226; 2.000 extension\n\n&#8226; 2.618 extension\n\nThe 1.618 level is especially watched because it comes from the golden ratio.\n\nThey Create A Risk Management Framework\n\nExtensions help traders avoid guessing.\n\nInstead of saying, &#8220;This can keep going,&#8221; they can say:\n\n&#8226; First target is near the 1.272 extension\n\n&#8226; Second target is near the 1.618 extension\n\n&#8226; If price clears those levels, momentum remains strong\n\n&#8226; If price stalls there, take profits or tighten risk\n\nThat gives the trade structure.\n\nThey Help Identify Potential Reaction Zones\n\nMarkets often pause, consolidate, reverse, or accelerate near widely watched levels.\n\nThat does not mean the level causes the move by itself. \n\nIt means traders may:\n\n&#8226; Take profits there\n\n&#8226; Add hedges there\n\n&#8226; Short against the level\n\n&#8226; Buy breakouts above the level\n\n&#8226; Watch for failed breakouts\n\nThat activity can make the level matter.\n\nThey Are Useful In Strong Trends\n\nExtensions are most useful when price is already breaking out into new highs or new lows.\n\nIn those situations, old support and resistance levels may not offer much guidance, so traders use extensions to project possible next zones.\n\nThe Risk\n\nFibonacci extensions should not be used alone.\n\nThey are best combined with:\n\n&#8226; Trend direction&#8226; Volume &#8226; Moving averages &#8226; Prior support and resistance &#8226; Momentum &#8226; Market breadth &#8226; Sentiment &#8226; Catalyst timing\n\nA Fibonacci level is a zone to watch, not a prediction.\n\nPractical Action Plan\n\nFor active investors, the best way to use Fibonacci extensions is simple:\n\n&#8226; Treat them as target zones, not exact numbers &#8226; Watch how price behaves when it reaches them &#8226; Respect strength if price breaks through and holds &#8226; Be more cautious if price reaches a major extension while momentum is stretched &#8226; Use them to manage risk, not to predict the future\n\nBottom Line\n\nFibonacci extensions matter because they give traders a disciplined map for measuring momentum, setting targets, and identifying possible reaction zones after price breaks beyond prior highs or lows.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Why do we pay attention to these extensions? &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Short-answer? They provide levels of interest to watch like we saw earlier this year from the prior year&#8217;s tariff tumble/correction.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That said, here&#8217;s more info for those who want to know more:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS 101:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Active investors watch Fibonacci extension levels because they offer a structured way to estimate where price may travel after breaking beyond a prior high or low.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They are not magic. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They work mainly because many traders, algorithms, and technical analysts watch the same levels, which can turn them into areas of potential reaction, profit-taking, resistance, or trend acceleration.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Why They Matter&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They help define upside targets&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;When price breaks above a prior swing high, Fibonacci extensions give traders possible target zones beyond the old high.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Common levels include:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 1.272 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 1.414 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 1.618 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 2.000 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; 2.618 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The 1.618 level is especially watched because it comes from the golden ratio.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They Create A Risk Management Framework&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Extensions help traders avoid guessing.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Instead of saying, &#8220;This can keep going,&#8221; they can say:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; First target is near the 1.272 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Second target is near the 1.618 extension&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; If price clears those levels, momentum remains strong&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; If price stalls there, take profits or tighten risk&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That gives the trade structure.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They Help Identify Potential Reaction Zones&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Markets often pause, consolidate, reverse, or accelerate near widely watched levels.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That does not mean the level causes the move by itself. &quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It means traders may:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Take profits there&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Add hedges there&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Short against the level&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Buy breakouts above the level&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Watch for failed breakouts&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That activity can make the level matter.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They Are Useful In Strong Trends&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Extensions are most useful when price is already breaking out into new highs or new lows.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;In those situations, old support and resistance levels may not offer much guidance, so traders use extensions to project possible next zones.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The Risk&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Fibonacci extensions should not be used alone.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;They are best combined with:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Trend direction&#8226; Volume &#8226; Moving averages &#8226; Prior support and resistance &#8226; Momentum &#8226; Market breadth &#8226; Sentiment &#8226; Catalyst timing&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A Fibonacci level is a zone to watch, not a prediction.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Practical Action Plan&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;For active investors, the best way to use Fibonacci extensions is simple:&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Treat them as target zones, not exact numbers &#8226; Watch how price behaves when it reaches them &#8226; Respect strength if price breaks through and holds &#8226; Be more cautious if price reaches a major extension while momentum is stretched &#8226; Use them to manage risk, not to predict the future&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Bottom Line&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Fibonacci extensions matter because they give traders a disciplined map for measuring momentum, setting targets, and identifying possible reaction zones after price breaks beyond prior highs or lows.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;2079c4a0-cb1e-4841-a277-d226641d5923&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/02c513be-9508-4991-9c72-b15a3be4a090_2009x1089.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:2009,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1089,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:257316464,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:257316464,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T16:27:13.414Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500 successfully captures first Fibonacci extension target at 7425:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;S&amp;P 500&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot; successfully captures first Fibonacci extension target at &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;7425&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;6eb9b363-a896-4490-a2cb-ad6ce1583492&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b4e0296b-37cc-4a8c-aabf-072e6b1598b2_2012x1085.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:2012,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1085,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:255513097,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:255513097,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T14:00:02.088Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;A good thesis can still become a bad trade.\n\nThat is one of the hardest lessons in markets.\n\n\n\n\n\nA theme can be bullish.\n\n\n\nA stock can have great fundamentals.\n\n\n\nA chart can have upside potential.\n\n\n\nA macro story can make sense.\n\nBut if the entry is extended, the position is oversized, or the crowd is already leaning the same way, the risk changes.\n\nThe market does not reward conviction by itself.\n\nIt rewards timing, risk control, and the ability to adjust when the evidence changes. The goal is to position better.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A good thesis can still become a bad trade.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;That is one of the hardest lessons in markets.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bulletList&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A theme can be bullish.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A stock can have great fundamentals.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A chart can have upside potential.&quot;}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;listItem&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;A macro story can make sense.&quot;}]}]}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;But if the entry is extended, the position is oversized, or the crowd is already leaning the same way, the risk changes.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;The market does not reward conviction by itself.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;It rewards timing, risk control, and the ability to adjust when the evidence changes. The goal is to position better.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:5,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:256954546,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:256954546,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T11:44:00.131Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T16:27:55.702Z&quot;,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;\n\n&#8220;I would love to live like a river flows, carried by the surprise of its own unfolding.&#8221; - John O&#8217;Donohue&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;blockquote&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8220;I would love to live like a river flows, carried by the surprise of its own unfolding.&#8221; - John O&#8217;Donohue&quot;}]}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:5,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:255518078,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:255518078,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T10:57:00.112Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Risk First, Always\n\nReturns come from offense.\n\nSurvival comes from defense.\n\n&#8226; Know your downside\n\n&#8226; Cut when you&#8217;re wrong\n\n&#8226; Preserve capital\n\nIf you stay in the game, opportunity will come.\n\nIf you don&#8217;t, nothing else matters.&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Risk First, Always&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Returns come from offense.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Survival comes from defense.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Know your downside&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Cut when you&#8217;re wrong&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&#8226; Preserve capital&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If you stay in the game, &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;opportunity will come&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;If you don&#8217;t, &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;nothing else matters&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;.&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:6,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:256918941,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:256918941,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11T00:33:00.116Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Based on numerous price action studies from this six-week rally, this model provides a future price projection in which the summer season ahead is likely to experience some consolidation more through time than price:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Based on &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;italic&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;numerous price action studies from this six-week rally&quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;, this model provides a future price projection in which the summer season ahead is likely to experience some consolidation more through time than price:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:3,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;ef652db8-5f7a-4415-a285-e95f8c6bc790&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cae117f8-5f1f-4ec9-87ae-dd06adbb1a47_1307x724.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:1307,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:724,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:256874646,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:256874646,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-10T19:11:51.033Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Over the past year and half, the space trade has outperformed chips &amp; AI:&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Over the past year and half, the space trade has outperformed chips &amp; AI:&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:0,&quot;attachments&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;16a4bfff-64cb-402e-bf58-fa1b0c4822a3&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;imageUrl&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f0f13a03-ffdb-41eb-a8a1-64dafc3cb9ca_937x1198.png&quot;,&quot;imageWidth&quot;:937,&quot;imageHeight&quot;:1198,&quot;explicit&quot;:false}],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><div class="comment" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/&quot;,&quot;commentId&quot;:256870634,&quot;comment&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:256870634,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-10T19:02:22.026Z&quot;,&quot;edited_at&quot;:null,&quot;body&quot;:&quot;Happy Mother&#8217;s Day to all my friends and their families!\n\nMy mother, now 85, has been one of the most important forces and influences in my life, in all the best ways.\n\nShe has always been my biggest cheerleader, my strongest supporter, and one of the greatest blessings in my life.\n\nWithout question, I would not have achieved what I have as an investor, or more importantly, as a person, without her love, guidance, and unwavering belief in me.\n\nWith deep gratitude today and always. - C.E. Kirk&quot;,&quot;body_json&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;doc&quot;,&quot;attrs&quot;:{&quot;schemaVersion&quot;:&quot;v1&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null},&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;marks&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;bold&quot;}],&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Happy Mother&#8217;s Day &quot;},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;to all my friends and their families!&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;My mother, now 85, has been one of the most important forces and influences in my life, in all the best ways.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;She has always been my biggest cheerleader, my strongest supporter, and one of the greatest blessings in my life.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Without question, I would not have achieved what I have as an investor, or more importantly, as a person, without her love, guidance, and unwavering belief in me.&quot;}]},{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;paragraph&quot;,&quot;content&quot;:[{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;text&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;With deep gratitude today and always. - C.E. Kirk&quot;}]}]},&quot;restacks&quot;:0,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:14,&quot;attachments&quot;:[],&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kirk's Opportunities&quot;,&quot;user_id&quot;:110178,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b029eb0d-6afc-4179-9a38-8dedad8fe5d7_1010x1010.png&quot;,&quot;user_bestseller_tier&quot;:null,&quot;userStatus&quot;:null},&quot;source&quot;:null,&quot;forumChannel&quot;:null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"></div><p></p><p>There are <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/notes">many more notes</a> I have posted, too. </p><p>Until next time, plan your work and work your plan. </p><p>I&#8217;m here to help in any way I can!</p><p></p><p>Always your friend,</p><p><strong>C.E. Kirk</strong></p><div><hr></div><blockquote><p><strong>&#8220;Your potential, the absolute best you&#8217;re capable of - that&#8217;s the metric to measure yourself against. Your standards are. Winning is not enough. People can get lucky and win. People can be a$$holes and win. Anyone can win. But not everyone is the best possible version of themselves.&#8221; </strong></p><p><strong>- Ryan Holiday, Ego Is the Enemy</strong> </p></blockquote>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[How To Navigate This Historic Six-Week Winning Streak]]></title><description><![CDATA[The S&P 500 has quickly jumped into the 7,400 target zone. This weekend we evaluate the potential for additional strength and short-term consolidation.]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/how-to-navigate-this-historic-six</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/how-to-navigate-this-historic-six</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2026 18:45:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png" width="1456" height="618" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1915819,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uEOx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401918ba-6c8b-49a3-97d1-a030c28ff947_1584x672.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500 did what we were looking for it to do.</p><p>It pushed into the <em><strong>7,400 target zone</strong></em>, closed near another all-time high, and extended its winning streak to six straight weeks.</p><p>That is not just a strong rally.</p><p><em>It is a historic, rare bullish winning streak in both size and speed.</em></p><p>Six weeks ago, the challenge was believing what the price action was starting to show. Many investors were short, sidelined, hedged, or still anchored to the prior weakness.</p><p>As usual, the price action changed first.</p><p>Then came the follow-through.</p><p>The investors who stayed aligned with the price action, played the bear-trap reversal, and added exposure along the way were rewarded quickly. The investors who did not are now trying to catch up, often by taking on more aggressive positioning.</p><p>Now the challenge is different.</p><p><em>The believers have profits to protect.</em> That means raising stops where appropriate, respecting support, and watching for deterioration in price action, leadership, and trend structure.</p><p><em>The non-believers have underperformance to repair. </em>That means owning the mistake, forgiving themselves, and building a path to get realigned without chasing emotionally after a historic move.</p><p>It also means not fighting the trend without price-action support.</p><p>Recently, even the chasers have been rewarded.</p><p>Maybe too well.</p><p>That is where the next risk begins to form.</p><p>A rally that began with many investors offsides can eventually pull those same investors too far in the other direction. Too bullish. Too leveraged. Too concentrated. Too willing to take risk after the market has already delivered a major move.</p><p><em>The largest short-term losses can often follow the largest short-term gains, not because strength is bearish, but because discipline often weakens after success.</em></p><p>The market has earned the right to consolidate. Historical studies following winning streaks like this suggest <em>short-term gains often slow, pause, or give way to rotation</em>.</p><p>That does not mean the rally is broken.</p><p>It means the market may need time to digest the advance.</p><p>Winning streaks do not automatically create major tops. Large upside moves usually become dangerous only when the foundations supporting them begin to break.</p><p>That is what matters now:</p><p>Price action. Trend. Support levels. Leadership behavior. Earnings. AI leadership. Reactions to good news.</p><p>If those foundations remain intact, consolidation should be treated as normal market activity, not the beginning of a major top.</p><div><hr></div><h2>What Happened Last Week</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png" width="1456" height="1168" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1168,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:5873525,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PN74!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2685a9d7-f305-48e3-a68f-c31c4542fe20_2316x1858.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were helped by three large gap-higher opens on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. That matters because it shows how aggressively investors were repositioning after stronger earnings, better economic data, and improving confidence in the outlook.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:40143,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zoin!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d56cb8-4e51-4978-8f51-dcfa75a2d365_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The simple read is this: <em>the uptrend remains intact</em>.</p><p>But there&#8217;s much more to it than that.</p><p><em><strong>It is a full-court press to reposition after stronger earnings, better economic data, and a better-than-feared outlook.</strong></em></p><p>That matters.</p><p>Not because the market is risk-free.</p><p>It never is.</p><p>But because the price action, the patterns, and the overall trend remain constructive, and the conviction behind this strength has been renewed.</p><div><hr></div><h2>The 7,400 Target Zone Has Arrived</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500 has now reached the 7,400 target zone.</p><p>It briefly touched that area Friday afternoon before ending the week near 7,398.</p><p>This target area has been on our radar since June 2025, when the long-term range breakout first put the 7,459 target into play. The following is the chart I shared previously: </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png" width="954" height="429" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:429,&quot;width&quot;:954,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:114473,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6KiL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3088da7e-54ff-4542-9940-750af9b6efb3_954x429.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Now, we are there.</p><p>After the first-quarter volatility, the <em>S&amp;P 500 is in trend-extension mode</em>. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:69061,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!smUm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c8905d8-15a2-425c-9179-8440eac4e4b7_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The current bullish price-action foundation has put three targets in play: <strong>7,425</strong>, <strong>7,459</strong>, and <strong>7,688</strong>, which are +0.37%, +0.83%, and +3.93% from the last week&#8217;s close. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:53562,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vSLE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2d484e-7f9f-4560-9092-a7e7eeb4f42f_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>All three targets are within reach given the strong and sustained upside follow-through over the past three weeks. I currently assign a high probability that all three targets are eventually captured.</p><p>The only real question is when the market gets there and what path it takes.</p><p>As for support, the recent highs, lows, and three lower gaps from this month are all areas of interest. A throwback retest of the 7,002 to 7,202 area would likely be defended if tested.</p><p>The 21-day EMA is currently near 7,133 and should climb closer to 7,200 by Friday.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png" width="912" height="408" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:408,&quot;width&quot;:912,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:36238,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/197028304?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GY80!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F561ce731-1655-44b0-8871-6f86632a6da9_912x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h2>Potential Paths</h2><p>A controlled pause around the 7,400 level would allow the market to digest gains, reset sentiment, rotate leadership, and create better entries.</p><p>That would be healthier than another vertical move that pulls too many investors into risk at the wrong time.</p><p>The point is not that upside is bad.</p><p>The point is that the quality of the upside matters.</p><p>A steady advance with rotation is healthier than a vertical move driven by urgency, FOMO, and leverage.</p><p>Without some consolidation and rotation along the way, the risk of a blow-off style advance increases. That would not necessarily be a problem immediately, but it could lead to a longer and more frustrating consolidation later.</p><p>That is not the base case yet.</p><p>It is simply a scenario worth respecting.</p><p>Under more normal market conditions, probabilities would mostly favor consolidation near the three targets in the 7,400 target zone.</p><p>But these are not normal market conditions.</p><p>They are extreme.</p><p>With so few comparable historical examples, the message is to remain open to multiple outcomes.</p><p>Put simply, this market has gone a little gonzo.</p><p>By that, I mean wild, extreme, and willing to stretch normal expectations.</p><p>Unless something new and unexpected alters the setup, price could move through these targets and get even more extended.</p><div><hr></div><h2>What Generates Sell Signals? </h2><p>Price-action deterioration generates sell signals.</p><p>You know the drill by now.</p><p><em>Sell signals come from bull-trap reversals, failed support tests, lower highs, lower lows, and sustained downside follow-through.</em></p><p>We have none of those currently.</p><p>Yes, the market is extremely overbought.</p><p>Yes, it looks overcooked, especially in leadership areas like semiconductors and memory stocks.</p><p><em>But strength alone is not a reason to sell or short.</em></p><p>Strength is a reason to stay aligned with the trend until price action changes.</p><p>As I often say, &#8220;Make hay while the sun is shining.&#8221;</p><p>The sun is not only out. It is running at full strength right now.</p><p>This is a time to stay right if positioned right.</p><p>If you want to short, be patient until price action shows real deterioration.</p><p>If you are not positioned well, the job is not to chase emotionally. It is to look for opportunities to correct that mistake when price action offers a better entry.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Our Job Now Changes</h2><p>Now that we have entered the S&amp;P 500 7,400 target zone, the job changes.</p><p>We are no longer asking whether the market can get there.</p><p>It already did.</p><p>Now we are asking what the market does after arriving.</p><p>The questions are straightforward:</p><ol><li><p>Do we see consolidation now or later?</p></li><li><p>Do any of last week&#8217;s three large unfilled gaps get targeted?</p></li><li><p>Does strength broaden beyond the AI-driven leadership groups?</p></li></ol><p>My current view:</p><ol><li><p>Consolidation is likely from the S&amp;P 500 7,400 target zone.</p></li><li><p>Last week&#8217;s lower unfilled gaps are logical targets if selling begins.</p></li><li><p>A broadening rotation would be healthy and would help reduce blow-off risk.</p></li></ol><p>That said, the mistake would be treating 7,400 like a hard ceiling.</p><p>The other mistake would be ignoring how far and fast price has already traveled.</p><p>The better approach is to let the market show us what this area becomes.</p><p>If the market does not pause, the 7,688 target remains in the crosshairs.</p><p>That is not prediction.</p><p>That is process.</p><p>For subscribers, the next question is how to manage this target zone, what would actually trigger sell signals, and which bull, base, and bear paths matter most from here.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[May The Force Be With You]]></title><description><![CDATA[The real battle in active investing is not against volatility, but against fear, attachment, and emotional decision-making.]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/may-the-force-be-with-you</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/may-the-force-be-with-you</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 17:26:15 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1G0y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F211ccee1-bf40-47cd-8649-915442e36652_2000x1000.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Five Week Rally Teaches A Lesson]]></title><description><![CDATA[The S&P 500 remains on track toward the 7,400-plus target zone, but a short-term breather would be normal after a powerful five-week rally]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/five-week-rally-teaches-a-lesson</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/five-week-rally-teaches-a-lesson</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 02:11:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over the past five weeks, the market has delivered a clear reminder that opinions, fears, headlines, and narratives do not get the final vote.</p><p>The price action does. </p><p>The risks are real. The rally is extended. A short-term breather would not be surprising.</p><p>But as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 7,002, the breakout remains intact and the 7,400-plus target zone remains in reach.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png" width="1159" height="745" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:745,&quot;width&quot;:1159,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1978586,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6h4u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88cb2af7-4a14-431b-a1c3-7e8b4dfd6387_1159x745.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2><p>We widely expected this year to bring more volatility and larger price swings than last year.</p><p>So far, that expectation has been met.</p><p>After three months of tight consolidation, a five-week correction has now been followed by a five-week rally. The Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 have broken out to new all-time highs. The Dow is not far behind.</p><p>More importantly, bullish price action remains in motion.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 now has three upside targets in or above the 7,400 zone. As long as price remains above 7,002, those targets remain in play.</p><p>Strength begets more strength most of the time.</p><p>Volatility can work the same way.</p><p>When price starts swinging this fast and this far, volatility often persists. That means the upside targets remain reachable, but investors should also expect bigger swings along the way.</p><p>The message is simple:  Price action comes first. The 7,400-plus target zone remains in reach. A breather would be normal. Below 7,002, the message changes. Until then, price gets the final vote.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>What Happened This Week</strong></h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png" width="1456" height="673" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:673,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:6534961,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUuR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5dd9ae8-e732-4eb6-85ed-a512d9679e05_3044x1408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The market had several opportunities to break lower.</p><p>It did not.</p><p>It had to absorb:</p><p>&#8226; Major mega-cap earnings<br>&#8226; The Fed decision<br>&#8226; GDP data<br>&#8226; Inflation pressure<br>&#8226; Elevated oil prices<br>&#8226; Iran and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty<br>&#8226; Questions around AI capital spending<br>&#8226; A powerful rally that has already left many stocks extended</p><p>Yet the indexes still closed higher.</p><p>That does not make the risks around inflation, oil prices, or capital spending irrelevant.</p><p>It means price is currently absorbing those risks.</p><p>As usual, following headlines, opinions, gut instincts, and narratives is not nearly as useful as focusing on price action first.</p><p>Price action is the priority. Always. </p><div><hr></div><h1><strong>The Price Action</strong></h1><p>So far, any consolidation has remained limited in size and duration.</p><p>Once the known catalysts were digested, including the Fed meeting and four Magnificent Seven earnings reports, big buyers returned. That produced follow-through strength on Thursday and during the first hour of Friday&#8217;s trading after Apple reported the night before.</p><p>New highs remain bullish until proven otherwise.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:37399,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LpIW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28a39a2f-1965-4e8c-9e9e-86ae01de9fc0_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  30 Minute View (5 Days)</figcaption></figure></div><p>The longer price holds above the January high near 7,002, the better.</p><p>To prove otherwise, price would likely need to re-enter the prior 7,050 to 7,150 range, then break and hold below 7,002.</p><p>That would represent roughly a 3% decline from last week&#8217;s close.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:40622,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YAhq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0558787b-48c8-4eee-9938-f5167e92ef74_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  Daily View (Year-To-Date)</figcaption></figure></div><p>One of the only negatives, and it is a minor one for now, is that Friday&#8217;s opening strength was sold, resulting in an intraday reversal. That formed a potentially negative reversal pattern, but it requires confirmation this week.</p><p>That distinction matters.</p><p>One reversal candle does not end an uptrend.</p><p>Confirmation does.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png" width="432" height="201.6" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:252,&quot;width&quot;:540,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:432,&quot;bytes&quot;:23616,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69ls!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a12d441-9d98-451a-b068-efdd0589f3b9_540x252.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png" width="337" height="215.87949260042282" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:303,&quot;width&quot;:473,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:337,&quot;bytes&quot;:44070,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lznw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94a61774-dc3e-45d7-921f-9b8a0e90e373_473x303.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As reviewed previously, as long as price remains above 7,002, three upside targets remain in play:</p><p>&#8226; 7,425 Fibonacci extension, +2.7% higher<br>&#8226; 7,459 prior range breakout target, +3.2% higher<br>&#8226; 7,688 current range breakout target, +6.3% higher</p><p>The 7,400-plus target zone remains in reach.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:52030,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/196272204?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAUm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1c6bae7-785e-4061-8719-ed64be596bba_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  Weekly View</figcaption></figure></div>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Market’s First Real Test]]></title><description><![CDATA[AI momentum has pushed stocks to extremes. This week&#8217;s earnings, Fed decision, and macro data will determine whether the trend continues or cracks.]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/the-markets-first-real-test</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/the-markets-first-real-test</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:55:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xUrA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f321b85-20b3-46f2-81a1-a228777f8f43_927x620.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[From Fear to Chase]]></title><description><![CDATA[After four weeks of relentless strength, there are a number of catalysts ahead]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/from-fear-to-chase</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/from-fear-to-chase</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2026 11:03:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCxA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf597b8c-2541-4905-9658-f80f4921d2a5_1456x816.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bear Trap Triggers Historic Bull Stampede]]></title><description><![CDATA[Will The "War Is Over, Everything Is Great Again" Buying Continue?]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/bear-trap-triggers-historic-bull</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/bear-trap-triggers-historic-bull</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2026 21:43:16 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png" width="900" height="600" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:600,&quot;width&quot;:900,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1186489,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/194628212?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6gU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50d9cc12-9b76-4db0-a5f7-74ddb218dae3_900x600.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2><p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, <strong>NASDAQ 100 &amp; Composite</strong>, and <strong>Russell 2000</strong> closed at new all-time highs last week following a three-week bull stampede into stocks. The focus now shifts to whether this breakout continues, and how far it can run.</p><p>This was not a typical rally. It was a one-sided surge driven by positioning.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>What Happened</strong></h2><p>The S&amp;P 500 surged to a new all-time high last week after being down <strong>-9.8% just 11 trading days earlier</strong>. This is one of the fastest recoveries of that magnitude in history and one of the rarest V-shaped reversals in modern market history.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png" width="498" height="459.405" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:738,&quot;width&quot;:800,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:498,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozwm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4578f79b-395a-4a02-82b0-0b4ed3c5e539_800x738.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">&#8220;The Hormuz Strait &#8220;<strong>V</strong>ictory&#8221; Pattern&#8221;</figcaption></figure></div><p>The rally was driven by a sharp repricing of geopolitical risk as signs of rapid de-escalation in the Iran war emerged. Oil prices fell sharply, easing inflation concerns and removing a range of worst-case outcomes.</p><p>At the same time, earnings from financials and select technology companies confirmed that the <strong>economy remains strong and that the AI-driven growth cycle is still intact</strong>.</p><p>Positioning drove the move. These reversals do not happen unless a large portion of the market is caught offside. Short, sidelined, and hedged participants were forced to reposition aggressively.</p><p>The result was a <strong>lockout rally</strong> with no dips and no resistance at prior highs.</p><p>It is always easier to explain what has already happened than to predict what comes next. That said, we can map the highest probability paths forward.</p><p>This move was driven by positioning, not conviction.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>The Price Action</strong></h2><p>Every single session last week closed higher than it opened. There was no attempt to fill the two large gap-ups from Tuesday and Friday.</p><p>This was pure, one-sided momentum</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:37903,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/194628212?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iX_6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc31f615b-e125-4cde-9800-01f8aa5d48c7_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  30 Minute View</figcaption></figure></div><p>So far this year, two trap reversals have defined the tape.</p><p>First, the bull trap constructed in January and February and then put into motion in early March, easily capturing its target at S&amp;P 6548 and more.</p><p>Then, the bear trap formed by the bounce that began on March 30th, which was put into motion in early April. That resolved higher into early April, quickly capturing targets at S&amp;P <strong>6902</strong> and <strong>6986</strong>, and then pushing to new all-time highs.</p><p>And by more, I mean <strong>new all-time highs</strong>!</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:52652,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/194628212?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wqgk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92ab075c-41e3-434a-b779-7ca2c76439d6_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Correctly identifying and positioning around these reversals has been the difference-maker this year.</p><p>Now the focus shifts to whether this breakout sees sustained follow-through.</p><div><hr></div><h2><em><strong>Most will read what happened.<br>Few will position for what comes next.</strong></em></h2><h2><em>This is where the real decisions begin. If you want the levels, probabilities, and plan, it&#8217;s below.</em></h2>
      <p>
          <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/p/bear-trap-triggers-historic-bull">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Stocks Bounce Back Through Big & Long Winning Streaks]]></title><description><![CDATA[Will This Volatility Be Followed By Even More Volatility Ahead?]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/stocks-bounce-back-through-winning</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/stocks-bounce-back-through-winning</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2026 22:38:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png" width="724" height="543" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:900,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:724,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EvOx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a4f3444-dff0-4959-8081-1f978de32f3c_1200x900.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Ships traverse the Strait of Hormuz (Photo: X)</figcaption></figure></div><h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2><p>Following a five-week losing streak, the market has now posted two positive weeks.</p><p>Bear trap reversals are in motion, laying the foundation for continued strength with numerous trailing support levels underneath in the multi-month trading range. </p><p>With buyers taking back control these past two weeks, much will depend in the short term on the reaction to earnings and any further fallout from the Iran war. It is quite possible this back-and-forth volatility will persist longer.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>The Price Action</strong></h2><p>Ahead of Easter, the bear trap was set. </p><p>After Easter, the bulls took advantage of it. </p><p>For seven straight positive days, including four last week, price climbed +8% from its March 31st intraday low. By last Friday&#8217;s close, the S&amp;P 500 was only +2.7% below its prior January high.</p><p>An intraday turnaround last Tuesday followed by a large gap-higher open on Wednesday was the one-two punch markets needed for the bounce back to continue. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:38490,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193843400?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LDTz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9499d43-e12a-4bda-8006-071d564ad4a6_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  30 Minute View</figcaption></figure></div><p>The bear trap reversal (inverse head and shoulders play) saw strong and sustained upside follow through. The longer price holds strong this week, the more likely it is that at least one, if not both, targets will be reached.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:50536,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193843400?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ZkF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcad47c6-2f3f-4619-8855-81b69ef0cd99_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  Daily View</figcaption></figure></div><p>The weekly view below shows price has climbed well into its multi-month trading range, effectively trapping the double-top reversal within the range. Previously, the area between S&amp;P 6800 and 7002 proved to be formidable overhead resistance:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:39159,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193843400?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wZ6T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08396726-8ec2-44d3-acba-ae059dba204d_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">S&amp;P 500:  Weekly View</figcaption></figure></div><p>It is quite possible that the volatility we&#8217;ve seen over the past two months, first down and then right back up, could beget even more volatility ahead. </p><p>While everyone seems to think/expect that we&#8217;ve seen another event like last year that the market will quickly put behind it and move on to new highs, this one may not play out the same way. There is a lot of recency bias type thinking out there, so we very much have to be prepared for anything and make minor adjustments along the way instead of taking on aggressive, one-directional positioning like before.</p><p>If there is an attempt to target and fill last week&#8217;s big unfilled gap (which seems at least possible), I will be watching to see if price finds  <strong><a href="https://www.kirkopps.com/img/2026APR/spx_4_11_26a.gif">trailing support</a></strong> at the major moving averages (especially the 200 day). It is quite an achievement to see price rally above all of these levels last week. It would be an even greater achievement to hold above them on any throwback retests. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png" width="1456" height="816" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:816,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:266017,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193843400?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sAsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d20b115-3192-471c-bcbe-5cbfe2b789ee_1979x1109.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I will also be keeping an eye on the <strong>AVWAPs</strong> for potential trailing support levels. With overbought conditions back in effect, we want to see prices continue to remain overbought for even longer as a sign that price action is improving, not just a severe oversold bounce and nothing more.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png" width="1456" height="836" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W-aa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4cb4f942-c040-499e-9d11-e001b6e77f6d_1973x1133.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>After this lengthy period of consolidation combined with the five-week nearly -10% drawdown from the fury, markets will be hoping that was enough to stage another &#8220;shake out, then breakout&#8221; move we&#8217;ve seen so often before. </p><p>That seems overly optimistic all things considered, but we are keeping an open mind.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png" width="609" height="443.36538461538464" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1060,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:609,&quot;bytes&quot;:559085,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193843400?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v5MS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bff030e-32c6-4da4-8858-5321e17ab856_3149x2293.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h2><strong>Performance Matrix</strong></h2><p>Given the significant strength seen since the last day of the first quarter, we should take note of the early improvement trends so far in April and the second quarter.</p><p>While weakness in energy-related stocks and commodities will come as no surprise due to the reduced war-premium, a few additional themes include: </p><ul><li><p><strong>Stocks viewed as benefiting from the AI revolution significantly outperformed</strong> (<em>chips, memory, computing, hardware, telecom, robotics, industrial automation, nanotechnology, rare earths</em>) </p></li><li><p><strong>Stocks viewed as losers from the AI revolution were significantly weaker</strong> (<em>software and cybersecurity</em>) </p></li><li><p><strong>Stocks related to the space industry outperformed</strong> (<em>satellites, infrastructure, data analytics, logistics and launch services, etc.</em>)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Best Performers:</strong>  Semiconductors (SMH), South Korea (EWH), S&amp;P 500 Momentum (SPMO), S&amp;P 500 Pure Growth (RPG), Spin-Offs (CSD), Turkey (TUR), Quantum Computing (QTM), Netherlands (EWN), Taiwan (EWT), and Gold Miners (GDX)</p><p><strong>Worst Performers: </strong>Sugar (CANE), Natural Gas (UNG), Wheat (WEAT), Oil &amp; Gas Exploration (XOP), Energy (XLE), Energy Equal Weight (RSPG), Gasoline (UGA), Cloud Computing (SKYY), Software (XSW), and Energy Commodities (DBE).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QpHk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1093bfc-7aba-48b1-afeb-3b4ec347fb1d_943x276.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QpHk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1093bfc-7aba-48b1-afeb-3b4ec347fb1d_943x276.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QpHk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1093bfc-7aba-48b1-afeb-3b4ec347fb1d_943x276.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QpHk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1093bfc-7aba-48b1-afeb-3b4ec347fb1d_943x276.png 1272w, 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class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w0od!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9a12b05f-34cd-4b8e-9f9a-9bc013ff6c80_943x404.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w0od!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9a12b05f-34cd-4b8e-9f9a-9bc013ff6c80_943x404.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w0od!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9a12b05f-34cd-4b8e-9f9a-9bc013ff6c80_943x404.png 848w, 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class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png 848w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-eQl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F567125c0-d6f5-4e43-b2e2-d7fe24506454_943x276.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png 848w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-4Os!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa7a61853-3b29-4aaa-8b74-72223107b726_973x180.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png 848w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZZ2u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2ab66af-2ee9-4dcb-9888-418826efea73_973x180.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png 848w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3jTj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb584b60-595a-4fe0-b29d-05910758c21a_919x1539.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>A few reminders: </strong><br>&#8226; Watch breadth, not just index levels<br>&#8226; Monitor leadership consistency, not one-day moves<br>&#8226; Track reaction to news rather than news itself<br>&#8226; Pay attention to how dips are bought or sold</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>My Take </strong></h2><p>After threatening to blast Iran back to the stone age during Easter weekend, it was quite a turn of events over just a few days, even for Trump</p><p>With the Iran war &#8220;already won&#8221; and any and all potential negative impacts &#8220;only transitory,&#8221; the hope on the Street is that the correction has finished and the market has &#8220;reset itself&#8221; for much better days ahead. </p><p>Trump said as much last Thursday morning:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png" width="476" height="120.20202020202021" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:225,&quot;width&quot;:891,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:476,&quot;bytes&quot;:43497,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193843400?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIIH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4e07068-fa40-4c4d-aa22-a8b21599e27d_891x225.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In other words, the old &#8220;let&#8217;s knock them down, so we can ride them back up&#8221; game. After all, those mid-term poll numbers aren&#8217;t going to improve all by themselves!</p><p>While it wasn&#8217;t the &#8220;It is a great time to buy!&#8221; tweet, perhaps this was enough now that the U.S. Navy is effectively in charge of the Strait of Hormuz toll booth?</p><p>My perspective is that as much as we want to believe the Iran war risk has been removed for good, it is still possible it may not play out that way. </p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/p/stocks-bounce-back-through-winning">
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Bear Trap Resets]]></title><description><![CDATA[Big Oversold Bounce Sets The Trap, But Will There Be Strong & Sustained Upside Follow-Through?]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/the-bear-trap-resets</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/the-bear-trap-resets</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 01:57:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png" width="1456" height="970" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:970,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:7534617,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/193206120?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZszW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5669d17a-b036-44d4-8cae-af456969bfea_2528x1684.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2><p>The market just set a trap.<br>The only question now is whether it holds.</p><p>Following five straight negative weeks and a near -10% drawdown, last week&#8217;s bounce has created a potential bear trap.</p><p>If it confirms, the path higher opens quickly.<br>If it fails, the next leg lower could unfold just as fast.</p><p>This is the inflection point.</p><p>What happens next will determine positioning, risk exposure, and opportunity for the weeks ahead.</p><p>What follows is how I&#8217;m thinking about it and how I&#8217;m positioning around it.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/p/the-bear-trap-resets">
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      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Double-Top Reversals Are In Motion]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Key With Reversals Is Always Whether There Is Strong & Sustained Follow Through]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/double-top-reversals-are-in-motion</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/double-top-reversals-are-in-motion</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2026 22:15:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SAUI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae8c4233-2d4f-4dcd-a9f7-95057ecf80cf_2880x1620.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Notebook Digest]]></title><description><![CDATA[What I've Been Thinking & Sharing During Week 13 (2026)]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/notebook-digest-4ea</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/notebook-digest-4ea</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 28 Mar 2026 02:41:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sr-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b3584ae-fc30-40ae-bfc7-76d50c20bcdb_875x492.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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          <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/p/notebook-digest-4ea">
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Stop Predicting. Start Preparing.]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why Active Investors Focus On Optionality Instead Of Predictions]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/stop-predicting-start-preparing</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/stop-predicting-start-preparing</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 21:13:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Nvcs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F519d9877-fd92-4460-9303-eb6c4021fc91_1214x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
      <p>
          <a href="https://kirksopportunities.com/p/stop-predicting-start-preparing">
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      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Has Another Bear Trap Been Set?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Extreme Oversold Conditions Below Major Support Shows Sellers Were In Control]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/has-another-bear-trap-been-set</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/has-another-bear-trap-been-set</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 21 Mar 2026 23:00:19 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png" width="1456" height="970" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:970,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:7038236,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/191634889?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hmkL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4697f18f-b604-4705-9549-b415bf7046eb_2528x1684.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h2><p><em>Price action remains weak, signaling a market under distribution.</em></p><p>The bull trap reversal put into motion this month has now captured its target. </p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has now closed below its 200-day moving average and its November low.</p><p>A new double-top reversal has triggered, threatening to deepen this pullback into a double-digit correction. </p><p>With the most extreme oversold conditions since last year&#8217;s correction, the focus shifts to watching for follow-through or a bear trap.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>How the Week Played Out</strong></h2><p>Amid rising concerns over higher energy prices and inflation, stocks remained under pressure last week.</p><p>&#8226; <strong>Nasdaq</strong>: -2.1%<br>&#8226; <strong>Dow</strong>: -2.1%<br>&#8226; <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>: -1.9%<br>&#8226; <strong>Russell 2000</strong>: -1.7%<br>&#8226; <strong>Midcaps</strong>: -1.3%</p><p>Once again, stocks attempted to rally early in the week, only to fail.</p><p><em>Whenever we see strength, it consistently gets sold.</em> </p><p>Gap higher opens on Monday and Tuesday were quickly followed by weakness, with gap lower opens dominating the remainder of the week.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:35803,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/191634889?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qv9h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5bcf270-cb0b-4927-b353-213824daaf39_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h2><strong>The Price Action</strong></h2><p>The S&amp;P 500 has now pulled back for a fourth-straight week and six of the last seven.</p><p>Since the January 28th intraday high at 7002 to last week&#8217;s intraday low at 6473, the S&amp;P 500 has pulled back -7.5%.</p><p>The bull trap, head-and-shoulders reversal we&#8217;ve been tracking this month has successfully captured its target at S&amp;P 6548.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png" width="918" height="414" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:414,&quot;width&quot;:918,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:67048,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://kirksopportunities.com/i/191634889?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6iPJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2a4cbed1-08d1-4d0c-83d4-684c4fdc5077_918x414.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>With price below its November low and 200-day moving average, the focus this week is whether this new double-top reversal sees strong, sustained follow-through.</p><p>This larger reversal is targeting S&amp;P 6060 which is -6.9% from last week&#8217;s close.</p><p><em>With extreme oversold conditions and a multi-month consolidation, probabilities favor&#8230;</em></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Notebook Digest]]></title><description><![CDATA[What I've Been Thinking & Sharing During Week 12 (2026)]]></description><link>https://kirksopportunities.com/p/notebook-digest</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://kirksopportunities.com/p/notebook-digest</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk's Opportunities]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 21 Mar 2026 02:29:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3abI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b815b77-1707-4b8b-9265-dd07b22c24f3_1242x828.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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