Kirk’s Opportunities | September 21, 2026
Markets threw caution to the wind as investors bought their favorite AI-driven tech stocks aggressively today.
The catalyst?
The headlines suggests the combination of lower oil prices and Treasury yields. Both of which benefited from reduced geopolitical anxiety ahead of key leadership meetings between Trump and China, Ukraine, and possibly even Iran. Not to mention the whispers of new trade truces and new AI tech business deals now making the rounds.
The Nasdaq Composite decisively broke out to a new record high with the 100 in quick pursuit as the Magnificent 7 hit new all time highs, too.
What was the real catalyst?
The price action shows too many were positioned short and sidelined ahead of what tends to be a couple of challenging weeks ahead. And the eager buyers took advantage to put the pressure on again by adding to their positions.
Needless to remind, when the market absorbs bad news and the strongest stocks resume advancing, our job is to reassess and act when and wherever justified.
THE TAPE
1) The S&P 500 busted the bearish series of lower highs, lower lows today by trading above both their prior lower intraday highs at 7756 & 7771.
This provides bullish follow through on last week’s bear trap of the Fed Day reversal.
Additionally, the bull flag formation was broken as well, with price beginning to retest overhead resistance near the prior August high.
Why does this matter?
The prior range breakout turn bull flag has put the S&P 8003 target back into play as long as we see strong and sustained upside follow through above the August high.
Ideally, we want the S&P 500 to follow the Nasdaq into overbought conditions again and remain there with no sign that today’s strength is getting sold into.
Among the swing strategies I track, most have just triggered new buy signals like the 9/20EMA above as well as MACD crossovers.
A one day squeeze is not nearly as impressive as keeping the squeeze on, defeating those caught out of position once again, and how we’ve seen unfold so many times throughout this bull market.
2) While participation improved, the underlying damage remains. More stocks rose than fell Monday, and strength extended across semiconductors and cloud stocks. Yet the latest breadth study put just 29.8% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day averages, while a separate reading showed 59.2% at least 20% below their all-time highs. Daily buying improved before the longer-term damage healed. Equal weight and small caps still lagged, and MAGS lifted the indexes more than otherwise.
3) The risk dashboard improved. WTI settled at $95.78, Brent at $100.34, and the 10-year Treasury yield moved below 5%. HYG also firmed modestly. These are constructive developments, with Brent still slightly above $100. We now want the relief to persist and credit spreads to confirm stabilization; falling Treasury yields can lift HYG without signaling reduced credit risk.
BENEATH THE SURFACE
New MACD bullish crossovers were made in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite today triggering buy signals given their proximity to previous highs.
Selected positioning measures give this rally room to surprise.
Prior to open, money flow data made the rounds this morning which showed more money flowing into leveraged short funds than long funds among other things which added fuel to the fire today. Nothing gets the bulls’ more excited than catching the vast majority completely off guard.
Other measures are less supportive. The later research included a breadth-based risk-off signal and a broader indicator set showing limited pessimism. These measures cover different participants and methods, so they need not agree. The evidence supports potential buying pressure from some groups, alongside unresolved internal weakness. It does not establish widespread fear or a reliable rally timetable.
LEARN & GROW
While people are loathe to chase the market higher, often establishing a small position size in those breaking out can work wonders for the psyche. This way you participate, but don’t loss your @$$ if the trade should fail.
Remember, true opportunities are rarely made in comfort. When risks appear far greater than the rewards.
Learning to lean into this discomfort is a necessity for all investors, no matter their time frames and strategies. The quicker you learn to overcome this hurdle, the faster you’ll be able to earn the returns you desire.
MIXER
The adoption check: Everyone was talking about and using Meta’s Muse today if they hadn’t already done so. Adoption of AI agents certainly strengthens the demand case; monetization, margins and returns on investment remain the next tests.
The opportunity check: AI agents browse, authenticate, communicate and transact. Their use could expand demand for networking, identity protection, cybersecurity and commerce infrastructure alongside computing capacity. That gives us specific business needs to research as leadership develops beyond chips.
The week-ahead check: Wednesday’s Flash PMIs should sharpen the picture on demand, input costs and selling prices. Resilient growth with cooling price pressure would support the recovery. Earlier fuel, freight and operating-cost increases can still affect margins after crude falls, making earnings guidance an important check on how quickly relief reaches businesses.
WORTH YOUR TIME
Ever wondered what was actually inside your iPhone?
I always find these breakdowns, this one of the new iPhone 18, quite interesting.
TO TAKE WITH YOU
On days like this, I take notice of which stocks in my portfolio and watchlists outperformed the most as well as those which did not participate.
I have been doing that a lot since the Fed day bear trap, and it has proven instructive on where to focus my sidelined cash next.
FOR MEMBERS’ ONLY
Today’s opportunity is one I’ve been tracking for the past two years, made its way on the new-high list, and I think for a very good reason.
Let’s explore…