Kirk’s Opportunities
Opportunities To Learn,
Grow, & Prosper
October 3, 2026
Hi friends!
As the 4th quarter gets underway, there is a question on the minds of many:
Has the extensive consolidation since the 9-week fever dream which ended in early June finally run its course?
In other words, are better days and price action ahead?
While the stock market has lost momentum resulting in extreme levels of breadth divergences and deterioration, there are small signs of improvement out there if you are willing to entertain them.
After all, tight consolidation like this in an uptrend mostly breaks in the favor of the dominant, underlying trend.
Nasdaq 100: Breakout Or Bull Trap?
The QQQs just closed at a new all-time high. The bullish price action foundation for the breakout to continue +11% higher has been set through three consecutive bullish plays:
1) Inverse head & shoulders reversal targeting $807 & $829
2) Flag follow through targeting $768
3) New range breakout targeting $835
Upon near-term weakness, watch for first trailing at the climbing 21EMA and secondary support at the 50/100 moving averages. Many are likely to set their trailing stops around there on recent entries, depending on their risk tolerance and objectives.
Full disclosure: I am long the 2x TQQQ since September 21st as this first range reversal was put into motion. My game plan is to remain long unless we see price action indicating a failed breakout/bull trap which keeps this trading range intact.
BEARS VS BULLS
It is not a surprise the bears love this extreme narrow leadership:
Which causes me to question - is the bad breadth narrative been oversold?
Perhaps, if this continues to hook upward showing sustained improvement from extremely oversold.
Beyond everyone and your favorite breadth measurement, watch for more stocks reclaiming and holding above their moving averages, more breakouts working, more stocks and sectors beginning to participate, and leadership broadening to the laggards.
Citadel Chimes In
Last week Scott Rubner shared his research while mostly arguing that September may have reset the market for Q4.
Which of course tells us the mighty Citadel repositioned long again last month ahead of this quarter. :)
Nevertheless, Mr. Rubner always shares useful hedge-fund like observations. Including indications that leverage fell, retail cooled, systematic positioning dropped below neutral, and valuations compressed, while earnings, corporate buybacks, and seasonal flows are now beginning to move back into the picture.
If this sounds like wishful thinking, you’re probably sidelined and/or short!
If this sounds like he’s being too cautious, you’re probably aggressively long!
The real takeaway is not that Q4 should be easy. Rather, it is that any short-term volatility this October is likely an attractive risk/reward buying opportunity IF the market shifts away from being focused on the macro challenges to the fundamentals and earnings.
Never Tell Me The Probabilities!
This just in and more from the trading desk of Lance Robert:
Wall Street Fears The Answer To This Question:
What happens when earnings growth merely becomes good instead of extraordinary?
Corporate earnings have been the market’s best defense against higher rates, sticky inflation, and rising bond yields. But with S&P 500 earnings growth expected to slow next year, an increasingly important question is emerging.
The answer depends heavily on AI spending, semiconductor margins, earnings breadth, and the U.S. consumer. Everything that Wall Street and investors will be watching as earnings begin to roll out this month and we begin to hear about what corporate America thinks is ahead of us not only this quarter but next year, too.
RADAR
The 4th quarter earnings picture looks much better than the breadth, will the Magnificent 7 someday be someday known as the Hateful 8? Micron looks cheap because investors seriously doubt these exceptional profits will last, 10 reasons why bond yields have soared, this year’s price action correlations favor buying the October dip, behold the Leopold stock tracker, and McConaughey shares a touching story.
MEMBERS ONLY
We’re seeing a positive start from all three plays currently on the opportunity list.
Let’s review where I think each one stands, where I’m personally positioned heading into next week, and why today’s market feels very different to me than the Internet bubble of the late 1990s…