The Bear Trap Resets

Big Oversold Bounce Sets The Trap, But Will There Be Strong & Sustained Upside Follow- Through?

The Bottom Line

The market just set a trap.
The only question now is whether it holds.

Following five straight negative weeks and a near -10% drawdown, last week’s bounce has created a potential bear trap.

If it confirms, the path higher opens quickly.
If it fails, the next leg lower could unfold just as fast.

This is the inflection point.

What happens next will determine positioning, risk exposure, and opportunity for the weeks ahead.

What follows is how I’m thinking about it and how I’m positioning around it.