The First Five Days

A Brief Look To The Past For A Peak Ahead

Matt Damon in Rounders (1998)

5 days in and the smaller caps are out in front:

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As you see, the S&P 500 is up +1.11% for the first five days of the year.

When the first five days are positive and up +1%, the forward performance has been positive with an 87% win ratio and median full year return of +19%:

Source: Fundstrat

The table above also shows how relatively rare it has been to be positive and up +1% after three years in which the S&P 500 was up greater than +15% each year in a row.

There was only one year in which this happened: 1999

For those who were not around back then or involved in the markets, in 1999 the internet boom was raging. And the S&P 500 rallied another +19.5% for a 4th straight positive year in 1999. An impressive yearly winning streak following a gain of +27% in 1998, +31% in 1997, and +20% in 1996.

What followed after 1999? Interesting times filled with opportunities.

We’ll talk more about that later, my friends!

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Let’s take a brief look at whats out in front 5 days in….

Materials, Energy, and Industrials

Oil Services, Alternative Energy, Gold Miners, Aerospace & Defense, Nuclear Energy, Retail, Semiconductor & Banks

Small/Mid Cap Value

Precious Metals

Especially The UMs (Uranium, Palladium, Platinum, Lithium)

South Korea Is Up Nearly +10%

Amazon Leads The Mag7

Small/Mid Caps & Emerging Markets Up More Than +10%

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What about stocks?Let’s look below the big four:

S&P 500:

NASDAQ 100:

Dow:

Russell 2000: